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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
Is a Gold Guaranteed with a $5000 Budget?
EXPERT ANSWER
A budget of $5000 is exceptionally large. Given a typical modern weapon case unboxing cost of $2.65, $5000 allows you to open roughly **1886** cases. Even with this high volume, every open is a separate 0.26% trial.
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
The extreme mathematical probability of opening 1886 consecutive cases **without a single gold** is \(0.9974^{1886} \approx 0.73\%\). Thus, you have a stellar **99.27%** chance of scoring at least one gold item. But a **0.73% sliver of chance to fail completely** remains. Out of 10,000 players, 73 will get zero golds!
OFFICIAL CS2 DROPRATE & EXPECTATION MATRIX
| QUALITY TIER | DROP ODDS | 100 OPENS ZERO-HIT | MEDIAN OPEN COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% | 77.07% | $1,019.23 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 52.56% | $414.06 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 3.86% | $82.81 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 0.00001% | $16.58 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 0.00% | $3.32 |
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 1779 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.99
Expected Value$1.93
96.9%S-Tier
→Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$2.10
84.0%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.09
Expected Value$1.16
55.6%B-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
19 ItemsCost: $11.11
Expected Value$6.09
54.8%B-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.77
Expected Value$3.03
52.5%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $1.91
Expected Value$1.00
52.2%B-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.24
Expected Value$1.93
45.5%B-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.24
Expected Value$6.79
44.5%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.13
Expected Value$1.80
43.7%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $8.09
Expected Value$3.49
43.1%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.28
Expected Value$1.84
43.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$9.58
41.2%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $12.63
Expected Value$5.18
41.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$1.93
40.4%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $16.57
Expected Value$6.66
40.2%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $9.14
Expected Value$3.65
39.9%F-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.20
Expected Value$2.76
38.3%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.18
Expected Value$3.11
38.0%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $34.89
Expected Value$13.20
37.8%F-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.82
Expected Value$1.44
37.6%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
15 ItemsCost: $3.36
Expected Value$1.24
37.0%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.08
Expected Value$1.50
36.7%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.34
Expected Value$2.31
36.4%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $26.51
Expected Value$9.58
36.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.38
Expected Value$0.85
35.8%F-Tier
→
Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.40
Expected Value$0.84
34.9%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.99
Expected Value$1.04
34.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $23.04
Expected Value$7.79
33.8%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.83
Expected Value$0.61
33.4%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $63.09
Expected Value$20.08
31.8%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.26
Expected Value$1.66
31.6%F-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.49
Expected Value$1.73
31.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$9.58
31.0%F-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.08
Expected Value$1.88
31.0%F-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.52
Expected Value$1.71
30.9%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $17.60
Expected Value$5.35
30.4%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $12.94
Expected Value$3.91
30.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.76
Expected Value$0.83
29.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.84
Expected Value$0.84
29.5%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.84
Expected Value$1.11
28.8%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.81
Expected Value$1.10
28.8%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.67
Expected Value$0.73
27.4%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.35
Expected Value$1.46
27.3%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
15 ItemsCost: $2.81
Expected Value$0.76
27.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.11
Expected Value$0.84
26.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.63
Expected Value$0.70
26.6%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.01
Expected Value$0.79
26.1%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.08
Expected Value$1.58
26.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $7.42
Expected Value$1.93
26.0%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.71
Expected Value$0.96
25.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.44
Expected Value$0.85
24.8%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.75
Expected Value$0.67
24.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $44.03
Expected Value$10.66
24.2%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $23.69
Expected Value$5.67
23.9%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $32.74
Expected Value$7.79
23.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $15.46
Expected Value$3.68
23.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$9.58
22.8%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.69
Expected Value$0.84
22.7%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$9.58
22.6%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.27
Expected Value$1.16
22.1%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.27
Expected Value$2.21
21.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.75
Expected Value$1.00
21.0%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.11
Expected Value$0.65
20.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $4.01
Expected Value$0.83
20.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $19.35
Expected Value$3.82
19.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $40.70
Expected Value$7.96
19.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $10.29
Expected Value$1.93
18.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$9.58
18.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.68
Expected Value$3.82
18.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.76
Expected Value$3.82
18.4%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $28.64
Expected Value$5.26
18.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.34
Expected Value$1.16
18.3%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $125.99
Expected Value$22.05
17.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.06
Expected Value$0.70
17.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $21.68
Expected Value$3.68
17.0%F-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.73
Expected Value$0.95
16.6%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $54.15
Expected Value$8.96
16.5%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $22.54
Expected Value$3.66
16.3%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $48.43
Expected Value$7.79
16.1%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $22.95
Expected Value$3.68
16.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.21
Expected Value$0.83
15.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.63
Expected Value$1.00
15.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $52.95
Expected Value$7.96
15.0%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$0.70
14.7%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $8.21
Expected Value$1.16
14.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $57.71
Expected Value$7.79
13.5%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $72.35
Expected Value$9.58
13.2%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$7.96
13.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $6.50
Expected Value$0.83
12.7%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$10.66
12.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.57
Expected Value$0.85
11.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $33.18
Expected Value$3.68
11.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $86.61
Expected Value$9.58
11.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $70.64
Expected Value$7.79
11.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$9.58
10.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$10.66
10.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $75.71
Expected Value$7.96
10.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $76.44
Expected Value$7.96
10.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$7.96
9.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.03
Expected Value$0.85
9.4%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$7.96
8.8%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $44.88
Expected Value$3.82
8.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$7.96
8.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $49.42
Expected Value$3.82
7.7%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $137.11
Expected Value$9.58
7.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.68
6.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $55.27
Expected Value$3.68
6.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $15.13
Expected Value$1.00
6.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $13.13
Expected Value$0.85
6.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $60.25
Expected Value$3.68
6.1%F-Tier
→X-Ray P250 Package
1 ItemsCost: $4.21
Expected Value$0.22
5.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $37.63
Expected Value$1.93
5.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $21.56
Expected Value$1.00
4.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $231.63
Expected Value$10.66
4.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.28
Expected Value$1.93
4.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $185.15
Expected Value$7.96
4.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$3.82
4.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $24.18
Expected Value$1.00
4.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $592.72
Expected Value$23.95
4.0%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $792.24
Expected Value$23.95
3.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$0.85
2.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$9.58
2.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $291.30
Expected Value$7.79
2.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$10.66
2.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $970.06
Expected Value$23.95
2.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1060.42
Expected Value$23.95
2.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1093.68
Expected Value$23.95
2.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$1.93
2.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$3.82
2.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.93
2.0%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1218.90
Expected Value$23.95
2.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1221.47
Expected Value$23.95
2.0%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.93
1.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1530.45
Expected Value$23.95
1.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $124.35
Expected Value$1.93
1.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $134.46
Expected Value$1.93
1.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $282.05
Expected Value$3.68
1.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$3.68
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$10.66
0.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$7.96
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $914.02
Expected Value$1.93
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $4616.92
Expected Value$9.58
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1183.07
Expected Value$1.93
0.2%F-Tier
→