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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
Are You Guaranteed a Gold in 100 Cases?
EXPERT ANSWER
Opening 100 cases costs around $265. While 100 trials seem substantial, it's still highly risky when the official drop rate is only 0.26% (averaging 1 gold in 385 cases). There is no guaranteed system for 100 cases.
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
The mathematical probability of **not unboxing any gold** in 100 consecutive trials is \(0.9974^{100} \approx 77.07\%\). Thus, your chance of scoring at least one gold is only **22.93%**. Even after 100 unboxings, there's a 77.07% likelihood of getting zero golds.
OFFICIAL CS2 DROPRATE & EXPECTATION MATRIX
| QUALITY TIER | DROP ODDS | 100 OPENS ZERO-HIT | MEDIAN OPEN COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% | 77.07% | $1,019.23 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 52.56% | $414.06 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 3.86% | $82.81 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 0.00001% | $16.58 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 0.00% | $3.32 |
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
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Allows opening approx. 95 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.96
Expected Value$1.52
77.5%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.02
Expected Value$1.13
56.0%B-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.74
Expected Value$1.81
48.5%B-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.90
Expected Value$3.32
48.1%B-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$2.68
48.1%B-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$2.85
46.5%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.47
Expected Value$2.51
45.9%B-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.54
Expected Value$2.54
45.9%B-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.85
Expected Value$3.54
45.1%B-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.19
Expected Value$2.29
44.1%F-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.60
Expected Value$2.45
43.7%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $13.59
Expected Value$5.90
43.4%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.95
Expected Value$2.96
42.6%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.14
Expected Value$1.76
42.5%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.87
Expected Value$6.62
41.7%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.99
Expected Value$2.08
41.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.52
41.4%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$0.83
41.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $13.86
Expected Value$5.72
41.3%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$1.20
41.1%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.06
Expected Value$1.67
41.1%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $30.61
Expected Value$12.53
40.9%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.93
Expected Value$2.39
40.4%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.46
39.8%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.27
Expected Value$2.49
39.7%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.03
Expected Value$1.59
39.5%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.08
Expected Value$3.18
39.3%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.59
Expected Value$1.41
39.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$9.09
39.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.84
Expected Value$0.72
39.0%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $54.55
Expected Value$21.07
38.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.72
Expected Value$9.09
38.3%F-Tier
→Fever Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$1.17
38.2%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $12.11
Expected Value$4.50
37.2%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.22
Expected Value$1.18
36.6%F-Tier
→
Huntsman Weapon Case
15 ItemsCost: $10.47
Expected Value$3.78
36.1%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.78
Expected Value$1.00
36.0%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.10
Expected Value$3.60
35.7%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$1.24
34.3%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.93
34.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.35
Expected Value$0.80
34.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.56
Expected Value$0.85
33.4%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $15.64
Expected Value$5.12
32.7%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $10.96
Expected Value$3.55
32.4%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.02
Expected Value$0.97
32.0%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.90
30.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.58
Expected Value$0.78
30.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.38
Expected Value$0.70
29.4%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$0.76
28.8%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.87
Expected Value$0.80
28.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $27.04
Expected Value$7.50
27.7%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $47.15
Expected Value$12.74
27.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$0.80
26.3%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $57.95
Expected Value$14.67
25.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$21.07
24.8%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.24
Expected Value$0.80
24.8%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $85.56
Expected Value$21.07
24.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $39.23
Expected Value$9.09
23.2%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $25.23
Expected Value$5.64
22.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.09
Expected Value$1.13
22.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $21.38
Expected Value$4.74
22.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$9.09
21.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$0.78
21.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$9.09
21.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$21.07
21.0%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $13.77
Expected Value$2.85
20.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.40
Expected Value$0.70
20.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.52
Expected Value$0.70
19.9%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $101.83
Expected Value$19.61
19.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.05
Expected Value$0.78
19.2%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $4.45
Expected Value$0.85
19.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $14.80
Expected Value$2.66
18.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.82
Expected Value$0.83
17.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.17
Expected Value$0.85
16.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $29.08
Expected Value$4.74
16.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $38.05
Expected Value$6.05
15.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.11
Expected Value$1.13
15.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$0.85
15.3%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.96
Expected Value$1.13
14.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $44.23
Expected Value$6.05
13.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $12.31
Expected Value$1.52
12.3%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $39.13
Expected Value$4.74
12.1%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $55.76
Expected Value$6.05
10.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.80
Expected Value$0.83
10.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$9.09
10.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$6.05
9.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $92.87
Expected Value$9.09
9.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $27.16
Expected Value$2.66
9.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$6.05
9.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$9.09
9.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$7.50
9.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$4.74
8.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$4.74
8.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $30.99
Expected Value$2.66
8.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $32.03
Expected Value$2.66
8.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$9.09
8.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$6.05
7.6%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $108.12
Expected Value$7.50
6.9%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$6.05
6.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $12.48
Expected Value$0.83
6.6%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$9.09
6.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$6.05
6.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$4.74
6.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $11.46
Expected Value$0.70
6.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.50
Expected Value$0.83
5.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $27.13
Expected Value$1.52
5.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $15.74
Expected Value$0.83
5.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.66
5.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$21.07
5.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $33.63
Expected Value$1.52
4.5%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $141.72
Expected Value$6.05
4.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $37.10
Expected Value$1.52
4.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $223.44
Expected Value$7.50
3.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $45.78
Expected Value$1.52
3.3%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$7.50
3.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $154.92
Expected Value$4.74
3.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$21.07
3.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$9.09
2.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $292.92
Expected Value$7.50
2.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $28.62
Expected Value$0.70
2.4%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $31.70
Expected Value$0.70
2.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $122.02
Expected Value$2.66
2.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $640.40
Expected Value$10.66
1.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$4.74
1.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $662.82
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $664.41
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.52
1.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $701.35
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $707.89
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $720.44
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $733.34
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.52
1.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$9.09
1.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$2.66
1.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1071.70
Expected Value$10.66
1.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.52
1.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$21.07
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $544.22
Expected Value$4.74
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$6.05
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $929.32
Expected Value$1.52
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.52
0.1%F-Tier
→