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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
Are You Guaranteed a Gold in 100 Cases?
EXPERT ANSWER
Opening 100 cases costs around $265. While 100 trials seem substantial, it's still highly risky when the official drop rate is only 0.26% (averaging 1 gold in 385 cases). There is no guaranteed system for 100 cases.
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
The mathematical probability of **not unboxing any gold** in 100 consecutive trials is \(0.9974^{100} \approx 77.07\%\). Thus, your chance of scoring at least one gold is only **22.93%**. Even after 100 unboxings, there's a 77.07% likelihood of getting zero golds.
OFFICIAL CS2 DROPRATE & EXPECTATION MATRIX
| QUALITY TIER | DROP ODDS | 100 OPENS ZERO-HIT | MEDIAN OPEN COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% | 77.07% | $1,019.23 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 52.56% | $414.06 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 3.86% | $82.81 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 0.00001% | $16.58 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 0.00% | $3.32 |
Source: Valve’s 2017 Perfect World disclosure for weapon cases. Full reference: CS2 case drop rates & odds.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
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Allows opening approx. 97 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $2.08
Expected Value$1.07
51.4%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.22
Expected Value$2.52
48.4%B-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
15 ItemsCost: $5.96
Expected Value$2.75
46.2%B-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.84
Expected Value$3.13
45.8%B-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.26
Expected Value$2.40
45.6%B-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.61
Expected Value$1.64
45.3%B-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.61
Expected Value$5.23
45.1%B-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.73
Expected Value$2.56
44.7%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $14.46
Expected Value$6.27
43.4%F-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.12
Expected Value$2.18
42.6%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.82
Expected Value$2.90
42.5%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $27.81
Expected Value$11.54
41.5%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.24
Expected Value$2.17
41.4%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.54
Expected Value$1.45
40.9%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.84
Expected Value$1.16
40.7%F-Tier
→The Spy Tech Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.65
40.6%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.28
Expected Value$2.54
40.4%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.65
Expected Value$2.27
40.1%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.05
Expected Value$1.61
39.8%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.77
Expected Value$3.07
39.6%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $5.95
Expected Value$2.33
39.1%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $3.94
Expected Value$1.52
38.7%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.95
Expected Value$1.52
38.6%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $13.39
Expected Value$5.15
38.4%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.34
Expected Value$0.90
38.4%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.46
Expected Value$1.29
37.3%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.18
Expected Value$1.93
37.2%F-Tier
→Fever Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.09
Expected Value$1.15
37.1%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $9.40
Expected Value$3.41
36.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $13.52
Expected Value$4.89
36.2%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $11.32
Expected Value$4.08
36.0%F-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
15 ItemsCost: $9.85
Expected Value$3.53
35.8%F-Tier
→The Arabesque Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.56
34.9%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.08
Expected Value$1.05
34.2%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.49
Expected Value$1.17
33.5%F-Tier
→
Recoil Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.90
33.0%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $10.17
Expected Value$3.24
31.9%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.66
Expected Value$0.83
31.2%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.94
Expected Value$0.89
30.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $54.68
Expected Value$15.84
29.0%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $45.36
Expected Value$11.99
26.4%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.88
Expected Value$0.75
26.0%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $54.64
Expected Value$14.07
25.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.41
Expected Value$0.61
25.1%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.60
Expected Value$0.65
25.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.57
Expected Value$1.07
23.4%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $21.54
Expected Value$4.95
23.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.66
Expected Value$1.07
22.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.88
Expected Value$0.43
22.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $1.83
Expected Value$0.41
22.4%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $72.32
Expected Value$15.84
21.9%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$4.87
20.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $30.94
Expected Value$6.47
20.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.42
Expected Value$4.87
20.8%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$0.61
20.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.81
Expected Value$0.58
20.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.04
Expected Value$0.61
19.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.64
Expected Value$0.90
19.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.74
Expected Value$0.53
19.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.23
Expected Value$0.61
18.8%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $103.59
Expected Value$19.41
18.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.06
Expected Value$0.38
18.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $11.98
Expected Value$2.22
18.6%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $35.25
Expected Value$6.47
18.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.37
Expected Value$0.58
17.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $28.59
Expected Value$4.87
17.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $94.67
Expected Value$15.84
16.7%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$15.84
15.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $20.08
Expected Value$3.12
15.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.10
Expected Value$0.90
14.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $22.49
Expected Value$3.12
13.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.93
Expected Value$0.53
13.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $8.03
Expected Value$1.07
13.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $40.99
Expected Value$5.40
13.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $51.38
Expected Value$6.47
12.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.22
Expected Value$0.90
12.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.53
Expected Value$0.53
11.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$4.87
11.6%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$4.87
11.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $47.48
Expected Value$5.40
11.4%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.81
Expected Value$4.87
11.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $48.10
Expected Value$5.40
11.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $28.22
Expected Value$3.12
11.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $58.75
Expected Value$6.47
11.0%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.43
Expected Value$0.58
10.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $50.66
Expected Value$5.40
10.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $10.25
Expected Value$1.07
10.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.70
Expected Value$0.38
10.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $6.26
Expected Value$0.58
9.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.54
Expected Value$0.41
9.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$5.40
8.9%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $18.57
Expected Value$1.63
8.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$5.40
8.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$6.47
8.2%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.73
Expected Value$0.38
8.1%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $67.32
Expected Value$5.40
8.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.82
Expected Value$1.63
7.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$5.40
6.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $25.00
Expected Value$1.63
6.5%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $17.56
Expected Value$1.07
6.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$5.40
5.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.12
5.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$3.12
5.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $55.40
Expected Value$3.12
5.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$4.87
5.5%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.88
Expected Value$0.41
5.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$4.87
5.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $35.91
Expected Value$1.63
4.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$4.87
4.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$3.12
4.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.93
Expected Value$0.38
3.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.88
Expected Value$1.63
3.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$15.84
3.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $11.14
Expected Value$0.41
3.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$4.87
3.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$1.63
3.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $33.76
Expected Value$1.07
3.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.95
Expected Value$0.41
2.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$6.47
2.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $15.23
Expected Value$0.41
2.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.38
Expected Value$0.38
2.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.27
Expected Value$1.07
2.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $43.68
Expected Value$1.07
2.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$15.84
2.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $321.76
Expected Value$6.47
2.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $624.62
Expected Value$9.20
1.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $633.96
Expected Value$9.20
1.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$4.87
1.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $702.58
Expected Value$9.20
1.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $82.26
Expected Value$1.07
1.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $733.65
Expected Value$9.20
1.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $736.98
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $738.58
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $738.66
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $31.80
Expected Value$0.38
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.07
0.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1074.90
Expected Value$9.20
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$15.84
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $155.58
Expected Value$1.07
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$1.63
0.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.07
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $479.38
Expected Value$3.12
0.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$4.87
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package
89 ItemsCost: $1225.87
Expected Value$5.28
0.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$5.40
0.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $752.72
Expected Value$1.07
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $2441.48
Expected Value$3.12
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.07
0.1%F-Tier
→