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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
Can You Expect a Gold in 200 Cases? The Realistic Odds
EXPERT ANSWER
Opening 200 cases requires over $500. This brings you close to half of the average unboxing expectation (385 cases). However, probability has no memory; each open remains a flat 0.26%.
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
The math shows a \(0.9974^{200} \approx 59.39\%\) probability of **getting zero golds** in 200 consecutive unboxings. Consequently, you have a **40.61%** chance of scoring at least one gold. There is still a 59.39% chance of failing.
OFFICIAL CS2 DROPRATE & EXPECTATION MATRIX
| QUALITY TIER | DROP ODDS | 100 OPENS ZERO-HIT | MEDIAN OPEN COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% | 77.07% | $1,019.23 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 52.56% | $414.06 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 3.86% | $82.81 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 0.00001% | $16.58 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 0.00% | $3.32 |
Source: Valve’s 2017 Perfect World disclosure for weapon cases. Full reference: CS2 case drop rates & odds.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 197 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $2.05
Expected Value$1.02
49.7%B-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.41
Expected Value$2.99
46.7%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.09
Expected Value$2.34
45.9%B-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.47
Expected Value$1.59
45.7%B-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.30
Expected Value$5.13
45.4%B-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.08
Expected Value$2.28
44.9%F-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
15 ItemsCost: $5.92
Expected Value$2.64
44.6%F-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.79
Expected Value$3.02
44.5%F-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.59
Expected Value$2.45
43.8%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.09
Expected Value$0.88
42.0%F-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.93
Expected Value$2.07
41.9%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $27.56
Expected Value$11.39
41.3%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.06
Expected Value$2.07
40.9%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.41
Expected Value$1.40
40.9%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $14.71
Expected Value$6.00
40.8%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.77
Expected Value$1.12
40.4%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.15
Expected Value$2.48
40.4%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $5.66
Expected Value$2.25
39.7%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.52
Expected Value$2.17
39.2%F-Tier
→The Spy Tech Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.63
39.2%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $12.35
Expected Value$4.83
39.1%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $3.93
Expected Value$1.54
39.1%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.63
Expected Value$2.98
39.1%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.94
Expected Value$1.89
38.2%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.89
Expected Value$1.47
37.9%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $12.94
Expected Value$4.89
37.8%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $3.99
Expected Value$1.48
37.1%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $9.12
Expected Value$3.29
36.1%F-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
15 ItemsCost: $9.77
Expected Value$3.51
35.9%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.39
Expected Value$1.21
35.7%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $11.19
Expected Value$3.98
35.5%F-Tier
→Fever Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.09
Expected Value$1.09
35.2%F-Tier
→The Arabesque Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.55
34.3%F-Tier
→
Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $9.37
Expected Value$3.11
33.2%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.43
Expected Value$1.14
33.1%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.07
Expected Value$1.01
33.0%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.68
Expected Value$0.86
32.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $51.53
Expected Value$15.79
30.7%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $20.77
Expected Value$6.36
30.6%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$0.79
29.8%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.90
Expected Value$0.84
29.0%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.85
Expected Value$0.72
25.3%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.30
Expected Value$0.57
25.0%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.61
Expected Value$0.64
24.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $1.80
Expected Value$0.43
24.1%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $56.66
Expected Value$13.61
24.0%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $20.37
Expected Value$4.80
23.5%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.84
Expected Value$0.43
23.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.39
Expected Value$1.02
23.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$5.09
21.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.66
Expected Value$1.02
21.8%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $44.14
Expected Value$9.56
21.7%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $77.65
Expected Value$15.79
20.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $31.72
Expected Value$6.36
20.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.73
Expected Value$0.54
19.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $25.82
Expected Value$5.09
19.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $11.39
Expected Value$2.24
19.7%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.67
Expected Value$0.52
19.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.64
Expected Value$0.88
18.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.04
Expected Value$0.57
18.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.09
Expected Value$0.38
18.2%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $102.44
Expected Value$18.42
18.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.04
Expected Value$0.54
17.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $88.89
Expected Value$15.79
17.8%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $28.63
Expected Value$5.09
17.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $5.76
Expected Value$1.02
17.7%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.25
Expected Value$0.57
17.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.64
Expected Value$0.57
15.8%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$15.79
15.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.64
Expected Value$0.88
15.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $20.06
Expected Value$2.97
14.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.63
Expected Value$0.52
14.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $21.30
Expected Value$2.97
14.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $47.00
Expected Value$6.36
13.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $40.99
Expected Value$5.27
12.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $51.38
Expected Value$6.36
12.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.28
Expected Value$0.52
12.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$5.09
12.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.16
Expected Value$0.38
12.0%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$5.09
12.0%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.81
Expected Value$5.09
11.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.58
Expected Value$0.88
11.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $47.48
Expected Value$5.27
11.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $48.10
Expected Value$5.27
10.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $58.75
Expected Value$6.36
10.8%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $28.40
Expected Value$2.97
10.5%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $50.66
Expected Value$5.27
10.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.39
Expected Value$0.54
10.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.80
Expected Value$0.54
9.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.29
Expected Value$0.38
8.9%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $18.94
Expected Value$1.66
8.8%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$5.27
8.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $19.38
Expected Value$1.66
8.6%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.12
Expected Value$0.43
8.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$5.27
8.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $12.37
Expected Value$1.02
8.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $67.32
Expected Value$5.27
7.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $71.29
Expected Value$5.27
7.4%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $25.00
Expected Value$1.66
6.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$5.27
6.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $46.99
Expected Value$2.97
6.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$5.09
5.8%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.52
Expected Value$0.43
5.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$2.97
5.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $55.40
Expected Value$2.97
5.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$5.09
5.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $8.56
Expected Value$0.43
5.1%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.14
Expected Value$1.02
5.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $35.91
Expected Value$1.66
4.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$5.09
4.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.93
Expected Value$1.66
3.9%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$2.97
3.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$15.79
3.8%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$5.09
3.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$1.66
3.3%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $13.37
Expected Value$0.43
3.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $12.02
Expected Value$0.38
3.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.48
Expected Value$0.43
3.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $35.43
Expected Value$1.02
2.9%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$6.36
2.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $16.08
Expected Value$0.38
2.4%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $43.68
Expected Value$1.02
2.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$15.79
2.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $46.22
Expected Value$1.02
2.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $321.76
Expected Value$6.36
2.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $577.79
Expected Value$9.20
1.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $608.88
Expected Value$9.20
1.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $626.55
Expected Value$9.20
1.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$5.09
1.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $28.23
Expected Value$0.38
1.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $708.55
Expected Value$9.20
1.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $718.02
Expected Value$9.20
1.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $727.53
Expected Value$9.20
1.3%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $740.67
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $82.28
Expected Value$1.02
1.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $773.00
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.02
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$15.79
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$1.66
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $155.77
Expected Value$1.02
0.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.02
0.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$5.09
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $479.50
Expected Value$2.97
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package
89 ItemsCost: $920.78
Expected Value$5.04
0.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$5.27
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $2441.48
Expected Value$2.97
0.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $906.38
Expected Value$1.02
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.02
0.1%F-Tier
→