BACK TO SIMULATOR
CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
Can You Expect a Gold in 200 Cases? The Realistic Odds
EXPERT ANSWER
Opening 200 cases requires over $500. This brings you close to half of the average unboxing expectation (385 cases). However, probability has no memory; each open remains a flat 0.26%.
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
The math shows a \(0.9974^{200} \approx 59.39\%\) probability of **getting zero golds** in 200 consecutive unboxings. Consequently, you have a **40.61%** chance of scoring at least one gold. There is still a 59.39% chance of failing.
OFFICIAL CS2 DROPRATE & EXPECTATION MATRIX
| QUALITY TIER | DROP ODDS | 100 OPENS ZERO-HIT | MEDIAN OPEN COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% | 77.07% | $1,019.23 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 52.56% | $414.06 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 3.86% | $82.81 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 0.00001% | $16.58 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 0.00% | $3.32 |
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 190 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$1.52
76.1%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.02
Expected Value$1.24
61.6%A-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.72
Expected Value$1.83
49.2%B-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.53
Expected Value$2.67
48.3%B-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.30
Expected Value$2.55
48.1%B-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.92
Expected Value$3.27
47.3%B-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
15 ItemsCost: $6.11
Expected Value$2.87
47.0%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.40
Expected Value$2.54
46.9%B-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.87
Expected Value$3.54
45.0%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.17
Expected Value$2.29
44.2%F-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.58
Expected Value$2.46
44.1%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $13.59
Expected Value$5.94
43.7%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.13
Expected Value$1.78
43.0%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.59
Expected Value$6.68
42.9%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $30.34
Expected Value$12.66
41.7%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.98
Expected Value$2.07
41.6%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$1.21
41.5%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.83
Expected Value$0.76
41.4%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.95
Expected Value$1.63
41.2%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.07
Expected Value$1.65
40.5%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$0.81
40.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $3.77
Expected Value$1.52
40.4%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.03
Expected Value$3.22
40.1%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.94
Expected Value$2.37
40.0%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.20
Expected Value$2.48
39.9%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.46
39.9%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.90
Expected Value$2.75
39.9%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $13.90
Expected Value$5.51
39.6%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.59
Expected Value$1.41
39.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$9.03
38.9%F-Tier
→Fever Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.03
Expected Value$1.16
38.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $54.55
Expected Value$20.89
38.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.60
Expected Value$9.03
38.3%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $11.79
Expected Value$4.50
38.2%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.22
Expected Value$1.19
36.9%F-Tier
→
Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.03
Expected Value$3.58
35.7%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.78
Expected Value$0.99
35.7%F-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
15 ItemsCost: $10.76
Expected Value$3.79
35.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.29
Expected Value$0.80
34.9%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$1.24
34.4%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.55
Expected Value$0.88
34.4%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.92
33.9%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $10.85
Expected Value$3.61
33.2%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $15.54
Expected Value$5.15
33.2%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.03
Expected Value$0.96
31.6%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.98
Expected Value$0.90
30.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.39
Expected Value$0.71
29.7%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.80
29.7%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$0.76
29.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.80
Expected Value$0.80
28.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.81
Expected Value$0.80
28.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $27.04
Expected Value$7.52
27.8%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $46.39
Expected Value$12.59
27.1%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.74
Expected Value$1.24
26.3%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $55.90
Expected Value$14.36
25.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.16
Expected Value$0.80
25.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.9%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$20.89
24.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $85.31
Expected Value$20.89
24.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.66
Expected Value$0.88
23.9%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $39.23
Expected Value$9.03
23.0%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $25.09
Expected Value$5.62
22.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.60
Expected Value$0.80
22.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $13.77
Expected Value$3.04
22.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $21.38
Expected Value$4.62
21.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$9.03
21.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$9.03
21.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$20.89
20.8%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.53
Expected Value$0.71
20.1%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.64
Expected Value$0.71
19.5%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.17
Expected Value$0.80
19.3%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $104.54
Expected Value$19.92
19.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $4.94
Expected Value$0.88
17.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.11
Expected Value$1.24
17.5%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.20
Expected Value$0.88
16.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.83
Expected Value$0.81
16.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $29.08
Expected Value$4.62
15.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $8.34
Expected Value$1.24
14.9%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $44.23
Expected Value$5.85
13.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $21.53
Expected Value$2.67
12.4%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $12.31
Expected Value$1.52
12.4%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $39.13
Expected Value$4.62
11.8%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $53.96
Expected Value$5.85
10.8%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $55.76
Expected Value$5.85
10.5%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.80
Expected Value$0.81
10.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$9.03
10.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $27.16
Expected Value$2.67
9.8%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $92.87
Expected Value$9.03
9.7%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$5.85
9.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$7.52
9.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$9.03
9.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$5.85
9.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $30.99
Expected Value$2.67
8.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$4.62
8.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$4.62
8.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $32.03
Expected Value$2.67
8.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$9.03
8.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$5.85
7.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $108.12
Expected Value$7.52
7.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $12.48
Expected Value$0.81
6.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$5.85
6.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$9.03
6.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$5.85
6.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $11.46
Expected Value$0.71
6.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$4.62
6.0%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $27.13
Expected Value$1.52
5.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.50
Expected Value$0.81
5.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.67
5.3%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $15.73
Expected Value$0.81
5.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$20.89
5.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $33.63
Expected Value$1.52
4.5%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $141.72
Expected Value$5.85
4.1%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $36.92
Expected Value$1.52
4.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $223.44
Expected Value$7.52
3.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $45.78
Expected Value$1.52
3.3%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$7.52
3.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$20.89
3.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $154.92
Expected Value$4.62
3.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$9.03
2.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $292.92
Expected Value$7.52
2.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $28.62
Expected Value$0.71
2.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $31.70
Expected Value$0.71
2.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $122.02
Expected Value$2.67
2.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $640.40
Expected Value$10.71
1.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $662.82
Expected Value$10.71
1.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $664.41
Expected Value$10.71
1.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$4.62
1.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.52
1.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $701.51
Expected Value$10.71
1.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $716.01
Expected Value$10.71
1.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $720.44
Expected Value$10.71
1.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $733.34
Expected Value$10.71
1.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.52
1.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$2.67
1.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$9.03
1.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1071.70
Expected Value$10.71
1.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.52
1.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$20.89
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $544.22
Expected Value$4.62
0.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$5.85
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $796.70
Expected Value$1.52
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.52
0.1%F-Tier
→