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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
Will Opening 300 Cases Secure You a Gold Item?
EXPERT ANSWER
Unboxing 300 cases is very close to the average statistical sweet spot (1 in 385). However, CS2 uses standard random distribution, meaning there is no progressive pity. 300 opens still carry no guarantee.
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
The math gives us a \(0.9974^{300} \approx 45.77\%\) probability of **zero gold items** in 300 opens. Your chance of unboxing at least one gold is **54.23%**. Even though the odds favor you, a 45.77% failure rate remains.
OFFICIAL CS2 DROPRATE & EXPECTATION MATRIX
| QUALITY TIER | DROP ODDS | 100 OPENS ZERO-HIT | MEDIAN OPEN COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% | 77.07% | $1,019.23 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 52.56% | $414.06 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 3.86% | $82.81 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 0.00001% | $16.58 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 0.00% | $3.32 |
Source: Valve’s 2017 Perfect World disclosure for weapon cases. Full reference: CS2 case drop rates & odds.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 293 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $2.08
Expected Value$1.07
51.4%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.22
Expected Value$2.52
48.4%B-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
15 ItemsCost: $5.96
Expected Value$2.75
46.2%B-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.84
Expected Value$3.13
45.8%B-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.26
Expected Value$2.40
45.6%B-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.61
Expected Value$1.64
45.3%B-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.61
Expected Value$5.23
45.1%B-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.73
Expected Value$2.56
44.7%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $14.46
Expected Value$6.27
43.4%F-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.12
Expected Value$2.18
42.6%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.82
Expected Value$2.90
42.5%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $27.81
Expected Value$11.54
41.5%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.24
Expected Value$2.17
41.4%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.54
Expected Value$1.45
40.9%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.84
Expected Value$1.16
40.7%F-Tier
→The Spy Tech Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.65
40.6%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.28
Expected Value$2.54
40.4%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.65
Expected Value$2.27
40.1%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.05
Expected Value$1.61
39.8%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.77
Expected Value$3.07
39.6%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $5.95
Expected Value$2.33
39.1%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $3.94
Expected Value$1.52
38.7%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.95
Expected Value$1.52
38.6%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $13.39
Expected Value$5.15
38.4%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.34
Expected Value$0.90
38.4%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.46
Expected Value$1.29
37.3%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.18
Expected Value$1.93
37.2%F-Tier
→Fever Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.09
Expected Value$1.15
37.1%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $9.40
Expected Value$3.41
36.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $13.52
Expected Value$4.89
36.2%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $11.32
Expected Value$4.08
36.0%F-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
15 ItemsCost: $9.85
Expected Value$3.53
35.8%F-Tier
→The Arabesque Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.56
34.9%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.08
Expected Value$1.05
34.2%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.49
Expected Value$1.17
33.5%F-Tier
→
Recoil Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.90
33.0%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $10.17
Expected Value$3.24
31.9%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.66
Expected Value$0.83
31.2%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.94
Expected Value$0.89
30.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $54.68
Expected Value$15.84
29.0%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $45.36
Expected Value$11.99
26.4%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.88
Expected Value$0.75
26.0%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $54.64
Expected Value$14.07
25.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.41
Expected Value$0.61
25.1%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.60
Expected Value$0.65
25.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.57
Expected Value$1.07
23.4%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $21.54
Expected Value$4.95
23.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.66
Expected Value$1.07
22.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.88
Expected Value$0.43
22.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $1.83
Expected Value$0.41
22.4%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $72.32
Expected Value$15.84
21.9%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$4.87
20.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $30.94
Expected Value$6.47
20.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.42
Expected Value$4.87
20.8%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$0.61
20.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.81
Expected Value$0.58
20.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.04
Expected Value$0.61
19.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.64
Expected Value$0.90
19.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.74
Expected Value$0.53
19.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.23
Expected Value$0.61
18.8%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $103.59
Expected Value$19.41
18.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.06
Expected Value$0.38
18.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $11.98
Expected Value$2.22
18.6%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $35.25
Expected Value$6.47
18.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.37
Expected Value$0.58
17.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $28.59
Expected Value$4.87
17.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $94.67
Expected Value$15.84
16.7%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$15.84
15.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $20.08
Expected Value$3.12
15.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.10
Expected Value$0.90
14.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $22.49
Expected Value$3.12
13.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.93
Expected Value$0.53
13.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $8.03
Expected Value$1.07
13.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $40.99
Expected Value$5.40
13.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $51.38
Expected Value$6.47
12.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.22
Expected Value$0.90
12.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.53
Expected Value$0.53
11.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$4.87
11.6%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$4.87
11.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $47.48
Expected Value$5.40
11.4%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.81
Expected Value$4.87
11.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $48.10
Expected Value$5.40
11.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $28.22
Expected Value$3.12
11.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $58.75
Expected Value$6.47
11.0%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.43
Expected Value$0.58
10.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $50.66
Expected Value$5.40
10.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $10.25
Expected Value$1.07
10.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.70
Expected Value$0.38
10.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $6.26
Expected Value$0.58
9.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.54
Expected Value$0.41
9.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$5.40
8.9%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $18.57
Expected Value$1.63
8.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$5.40
8.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$6.47
8.2%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.73
Expected Value$0.38
8.1%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $67.32
Expected Value$5.40
8.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.82
Expected Value$1.63
7.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$5.40
6.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $25.00
Expected Value$1.63
6.5%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $17.56
Expected Value$1.07
6.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$5.40
5.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.12
5.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$3.12
5.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $55.40
Expected Value$3.12
5.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$4.87
5.5%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.88
Expected Value$0.41
5.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$4.87
5.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $35.91
Expected Value$1.63
4.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$4.87
4.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$3.12
4.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.93
Expected Value$0.38
3.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.88
Expected Value$1.63
3.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$15.84
3.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $11.14
Expected Value$0.41
3.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$4.87
3.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$1.63
3.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $33.76
Expected Value$1.07
3.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.95
Expected Value$0.41
2.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$6.47
2.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $15.23
Expected Value$0.41
2.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.38
Expected Value$0.38
2.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.27
Expected Value$1.07
2.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $43.68
Expected Value$1.07
2.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$15.84
2.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $321.76
Expected Value$6.47
2.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $624.62
Expected Value$9.20
1.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $633.96
Expected Value$9.20
1.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$4.87
1.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $702.58
Expected Value$9.20
1.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $82.26
Expected Value$1.07
1.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $733.65
Expected Value$9.20
1.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $736.98
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $738.58
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $738.66
Expected Value$9.20
1.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $31.80
Expected Value$0.38
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.07
0.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1074.90
Expected Value$9.20
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$15.84
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $155.58
Expected Value$1.07
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$1.63
0.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.07
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $479.38
Expected Value$3.12
0.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$4.87
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package
89 ItemsCost: $1225.87
Expected Value$5.28
0.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$5.40
0.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $752.72
Expected Value$1.07
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $2441.48
Expected Value$3.12
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.07
0.1%F-Tier
→