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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 200 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$2.01
80.5%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $2.01
Expected Value$1.44
71.5%A-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
19 ItemsCost: $10.79
Expected Value$6.04
56.0%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.16
Expected Value$1.10
51.1%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.05
Expected Value$1.02
50.0%B-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.81
Expected Value$2.82
48.6%B-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.05
Expected Value$6.94
46.1%B-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.20
Expected Value$1.92
45.7%B-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.10
Expected Value$1.73
42.2%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.50
Expected Value$3.49
41.1%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $15.51
Expected Value$6.33
40.8%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.97
Expected Value$3.24
40.6%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.01
Expected Value$0.80
39.8%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
15 ItemsCost: $3.28
Expected Value$1.26
38.5%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $31.95
Expected Value$12.10
37.9%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.74
Expected Value$2.93
37.9%F-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.20
Expected Value$2.72
37.8%F-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.91
Expected Value$1.42
36.3%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $12.68
Expected Value$4.48
35.3%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.15
Expected Value$1.46
35.1%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.96
Expected Value$1.03
34.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.63
Expected Value$0.91
34.8%F-Tier
→
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.31
Expected Value$2.17
34.3%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $59.79
Expected Value$20.30
34.0%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.80
Expected Value$0.61
33.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.37
Expected Value$0.79
33.5%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.38
Expected Value$1.44
32.8%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $20.95
Expected Value$6.66
31.8%F-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.52
Expected Value$1.74
31.6%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $15.50
Expected Value$4.88
31.5%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.25
Expected Value$1.62
30.9%F-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.55
Expected Value$1.71
30.9%F-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.14
Expected Value$1.86
30.3%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.78
Expected Value$1.14
30.1%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.97
Expected Value$3.55
29.6%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.77
29.2%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.85
Expected Value$1.11
28.9%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.27
Expected Value$1.43
27.1%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $19.52
Expected Value$5.24
26.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.02
Expected Value$0.79
26.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$6.05
26.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $5.63
Expected Value$1.44
25.5%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.98
Expected Value$0.76
25.5%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.73
Expected Value$0.95
25.4%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.08
Expected Value$1.54
25.4%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
15 ItemsCost: $2.80
Expected Value$0.70
25.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.67
Expected Value$0.67
24.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.17
Expected Value$1.02
24.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.36
Expected Value$0.79
23.6%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.75
Expected Value$0.63
23.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $26.51
Expected Value$6.05
22.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $4.12
Expected Value$0.91
22.2%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.07
Expected Value$2.23
22.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $15.46
Expected Value$3.35
21.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.22
Expected Value$1.10
21.2%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.81
Expected Value$0.79
20.8%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.10
Expected Value$0.64
20.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $32.74
Expected Value$6.66
20.3%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $25.81
Expected Value$5.22
20.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $44.03
Expected Value$8.78
19.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$6.05
19.6%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $114.29
Expected Value$21.32
18.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.11
Expected Value$1.10
18.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $39.26
Expected Value$6.97
17.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.66
Expected Value$0.80
17.2%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.91
Expected Value$0.67
17.0%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $22.54
Expected Value$3.83
17.0%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.58
Expected Value$0.91
16.4%F-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.74
Expected Value$0.93
16.1%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $52.42
Expected Value$8.43
16.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $9.07
Expected Value$1.44
15.9%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $21.68
Expected Value$3.35
15.5%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.33
Expected Value$0.67
15.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.97
Expected Value$0.91
15.3%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $22.95
Expected Value$3.35
14.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.36
Expected Value$2.94
14.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$6.05
14.4%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$6.05
14.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.68
Expected Value$2.94
14.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.76
Expected Value$2.94
14.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $10.29
Expected Value$1.44
14.0%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $48.43
Expected Value$6.66
13.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.56
Expected Value$1.02
13.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $52.95
Expected Value$6.97
13.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.11
Expected Value$1.10
12.1%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$6.05
11.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $57.71
Expected Value$6.66
11.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$6.97
11.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.02
Expected Value$0.80
11.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.03
Expected Value$1.02
11.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$8.78
10.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $33.18
Expected Value$3.35
10.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $70.64
Expected Value$6.66
9.4%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $75.71
Expected Value$6.97
9.2%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $76.44
Expected Value$6.97
9.1%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$8.78
8.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$6.97
8.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $72.35
Expected Value$6.05
8.4%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $13.13
Expected Value$1.02
7.8%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$6.97
7.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $10.54
Expected Value$0.80
7.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$6.97
7.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $86.61
Expected Value$6.05
7.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$6.05
6.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $44.88
Expected Value$2.94
6.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.35
6.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $55.27
Expected Value$3.35
6.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $49.42
Expected Value$2.94
5.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $60.25
Expected Value$3.35
5.6%F-Tier
→X-Ray P250 Package
1 ItemsCost: $4.05
Expected Value$0.22
5.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $137.11
Expected Value$6.05
4.4%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $37.63
Expected Value$1.44
3.8%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $231.63
Expected Value$8.78
3.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $185.15
Expected Value$6.97
3.8%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $21.55
Expected Value$0.80
3.7%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.28
Expected Value$1.44
3.4%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $24.01
Expected Value$0.80
3.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$1.02
3.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$2.94
3.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $794.06
Expected Value$23.68
3.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $970.06
Expected Value$23.68
2.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $291.30
Expected Value$6.66
2.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1060.42
Expected Value$23.68
2.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1093.68
Expected Value$23.68
2.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$8.78
2.1%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1218.90
Expected Value$23.68
1.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1221.47
Expected Value$23.68
1.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$6.05
1.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$1.44
1.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1530.45
Expected Value$23.68
1.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$2.94
1.5%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1542.80
Expected Value$23.68
1.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.44
1.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.44
1.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $289.32
Expected Value$3.35
1.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $124.35
Expected Value$1.44
1.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $134.46
Expected Value$1.44
1.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$3.35
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$8.78
0.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$6.97
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $745.94
Expected Value$1.44
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $4616.92
Expected Value$6.05
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1183.07
Expected Value$1.44
0.1%F-Tier
→