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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 265 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.88
Expected Value$1.30
68.9%A-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$1.27
63.3%A-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.71
Expected Value$1.80
48.6%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.40
Expected Value$2.62
48.4%B-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.60
Expected Value$2.69
48.1%B-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.94
Expected Value$3.33
48.0%B-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
15 ItemsCost: $6.22
Expected Value$2.92
46.9%B-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.54
Expected Value$2.59
46.8%B-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.43
Expected Value$2.49
45.8%B-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.24
Expected Value$1.89
44.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $19.84
Expected Value$8.73
44.0%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.27
Expected Value$2.30
43.7%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.91
Expected Value$1.27
43.5%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $11.55
Expected Value$4.91
42.5%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.00
Expected Value$1.68
42.0%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $15.06
Expected Value$6.28
41.7%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $16.41
Expected Value$6.72
41.0%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $8.95
Expected Value$3.66
40.9%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $32.67
Expected Value$13.32
40.8%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.92
Expected Value$2.81
40.6%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.71
Expected Value$1.51
40.6%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.58
Expected Value$1.45
40.4%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $14.00
Expected Value$5.64
40.3%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.32
Expected Value$2.52
39.9%F-Tier
→The Arabesque Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.64
39.7%F-Tier
→The Spy Tech Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.63
39.7%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.34
Expected Value$2.11
39.5%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.23
Expected Value$1.67
39.4%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.95
Expected Value$2.34
39.3%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.61
Expected Value$3.38
39.3%F-Tier
→Fever Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.08
Expected Value$1.19
38.5%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.57
Expected Value$1.37
38.5%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.19
Expected Value$1.21
38.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$1.00
38.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$8.73
37.6%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.07
Expected Value$3.64
36.1%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.76
Expected Value$0.99
35.9%F-Tier
→
Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $25.49
Expected Value$8.73
34.3%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.70
Expected Value$0.92
33.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.34
Expected Value$0.79
33.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$0.67
33.6%F-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
15 ItemsCost: $11.39
Expected Value$3.80
33.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $16.24
Expected Value$5.33
32.8%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.61
Expected Value$0.85
32.6%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.00
Expected Value$0.97
32.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $22.51
Expected Value$7.11
31.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $56.06
Expected Value$17.68
31.5%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.84
Expected Value$3.73
31.5%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.96
Expected Value$0.60
30.8%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.95
Expected Value$0.87
29.4%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.34
Expected Value$0.67
28.5%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.63
Expected Value$0.73
27.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.63
Expected Value$1.00
27.7%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.89
Expected Value$0.79
27.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.79
26.7%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $46.74
Expected Value$12.31
26.3%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $58.46
Expected Value$14.93
25.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.43
Expected Value$0.85
24.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.14
Expected Value$1.27
24.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.22
Expected Value$0.79
24.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $5.37
Expected Value$1.30
24.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $19.22
Expected Value$4.45
23.2%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $24.14
Expected Value$5.38
22.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $20.36
Expected Value$4.45
21.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.00
Expected Value$1.30
21.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.05
Expected Value$1.30
21.4%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $83.22
Expected Value$17.68
21.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $4.81
Expected Value$1.00
20.9%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$8.73
20.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$17.68
20.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$8.73
20.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.80
Expected Value$8.73
20.4%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $35.25
Expected Value$7.11
20.2%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.06
Expected Value$1.00
19.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.30
Expected Value$0.85
19.8%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $102.10
Expected Value$19.85
19.4%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $13.39
Expected Value$2.44
18.2%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.72
Expected Value$0.67
18.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$17.68
17.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $40.42
Expected Value$5.96
14.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.62
Expected Value$0.67
14.5%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.02
Expected Value$1.27
14.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.81
Expected Value$0.67
13.9%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $44.23
Expected Value$5.96
13.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $47.48
Expected Value$5.96
12.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $59.04
Expected Value$7.11
12.0%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $39.13
Expected Value$4.45
11.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $11.44
Expected Value$1.27
11.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.14
Expected Value$2.14
10.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $12.60
Expected Value$1.30
10.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$8.73
9.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$5.96
9.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$5.96
9.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$8.73
9.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$7.11
9.0%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $67.14
Expected Value$5.96
8.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.80
Expected Value$0.67
8.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$4.45
8.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$4.45
8.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $27.16
Expected Value$2.14
7.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$8.73
7.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$5.96
7.4%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.23
Expected Value$0.67
7.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $30.99
Expected Value$2.14
6.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $31.25
Expected Value$2.14
6.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$5.96
6.3%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $10.75
Expected Value$0.67
6.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$8.73
6.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $22.26
Expected Value$1.30
5.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$4.45
5.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.60
Expected Value$0.67
4.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $15.00
Expected Value$0.67
4.5%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $15.29
Expected Value$0.67
4.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$17.68
4.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.14
4.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $141.72
Expected Value$5.96
4.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $33.47
Expected Value$1.30
3.9%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$7.11
3.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $43.95
Expected Value$1.30
2.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $154.92
Expected Value$4.45
2.9%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $45.78
Expected Value$1.30
2.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$17.68
2.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$8.73
2.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $292.92
Expected Value$7.11
2.4%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $31.08
Expected Value$0.67
2.1%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $122.02
Expected Value$2.14
1.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$4.45
1.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $629.59
Expected Value$9.47
1.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $637.56
Expected Value$9.47
1.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $669.44
Expected Value$9.47
1.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $680.06
Expected Value$9.47
1.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $700.38
Expected Value$9.47
1.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.30
1.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $731.52
Expected Value$9.47
1.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $856.02
Expected Value$9.47
1.1%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.30
1.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$8.73
1.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$2.14
0.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1066.95
Expected Value$9.47
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $155.61
Expected Value$1.30
0.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $540.67
Expected Value$4.45
0.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.30
0.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$17.68
0.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package
89 ItemsCost: $1134.52
Expected Value$6.78
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$5.96
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $748.01
Expected Value$1.30
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.30
0.1%F-Tier
→