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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 240 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $2.08
Expected Value$1.04
49.8%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.06
Expected Value$2.36
46.6%B-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.47
Expected Value$2.99
46.2%B-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.47
Expected Value$1.59
45.7%B-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.62
Expected Value$3.02
45.6%B-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
15 ItemsCost: $5.81
Expected Value$2.61
44.9%F-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.04
Expected Value$2.26
44.8%F-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.43
Expected Value$2.40
44.2%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.69
Expected Value$5.09
43.5%F-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.00
Expected Value$2.12
42.3%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $14.34
Expected Value$6.02
42.0%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.14
Expected Value$0.89
41.7%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.99
Expected Value$2.48
41.4%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $27.44
Expected Value$11.34
41.3%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.08
Expected Value$2.10
41.3%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.76
Expected Value$1.13
41.1%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.46
Expected Value$1.39
40.3%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $5.60
Expected Value$2.25
40.1%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.53
Expected Value$2.20
39.8%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.79
Expected Value$1.49
39.4%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.55
Expected Value$2.91
38.6%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $3.85
Expected Value$1.48
38.5%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $3.99
Expected Value$1.53
38.5%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $12.63
Expected Value$4.84
38.4%F-Tier
→The Spy Tech Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.61
38.1%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.95
Expected Value$1.87
37.8%F-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
15 ItemsCost: $9.21
Expected Value$3.45
37.5%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $12.85
Expected Value$4.72
36.7%F-Tier
→Fever Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.06
Expected Value$1.10
35.8%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.36
Expected Value$1.20
35.7%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $10.99
Expected Value$3.91
35.6%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $9.23
Expected Value$3.25
35.2%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.91
Expected Value$3.12
35.1%F-Tier
→The Arabesque Collection
17 ItemsCost: $1.60
Expected Value$0.55
34.5%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.03
Expected Value$1.03
34.1%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.39
Expected Value$1.13
33.4%F-Tier
→
Recoil Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.68
Expected Value$0.88
32.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $20.80
Expected Value$6.46
31.0%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $51.94
Expected Value$15.93
30.7%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$0.80
30.2%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.90
Expected Value$0.84
29.1%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.82
Expected Value$0.72
25.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.09
Expected Value$1.04
25.3%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $1.77
Expected Value$0.44
24.7%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.62
Expected Value$0.64
24.6%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.74
Expected Value$0.43
24.4%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $20.57
Expected Value$4.97
24.2%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $57.14
Expected Value$13.56
23.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.41
Expected Value$0.57
23.7%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $70.54
Expected Value$15.93
22.6%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $44.19
Expected Value$9.95
22.5%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.61
Expected Value$1.04
22.5%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$5.12
22.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.38
Expected Value$0.89
20.4%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $31.72
Expected Value$6.46
20.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.67
Expected Value$0.54
20.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.73
Expected Value$0.55
20.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.89
Expected Value$0.57
19.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $11.17
Expected Value$2.20
19.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.95
Expected Value$0.57
19.4%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $27.24
Expected Value$5.12
18.8%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $101.07
Expected Value$18.76
18.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $85.92
Expected Value$15.93
18.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $5.61
Expected Value$1.04
18.5%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $28.63
Expected Value$5.12
17.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.19
Expected Value$0.38
17.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.52
Expected Value$0.57
16.2%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$15.93
15.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.74
Expected Value$0.89
15.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.57
Expected Value$0.55
15.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $19.99
Expected Value$2.95
14.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.66
Expected Value$0.54
14.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $47.00
Expected Value$6.46
13.7%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $40.99
Expected Value$5.47
13.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.72
Expected Value$0.89
13.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $22.33
Expected Value$2.95
13.2%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.24
Expected Value$0.54
12.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$6.46
12.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$5.12
12.2%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$5.12
12.1%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.81
Expected Value$5.12
12.0%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.16
Expected Value$0.38
11.9%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $47.48
Expected Value$5.47
11.5%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $48.10
Expected Value$5.47
11.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $4.89
Expected Value$0.55
11.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $58.75
Expected Value$6.46
11.0%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $50.66
Expected Value$5.47
10.8%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $28.40
Expected Value$2.95
10.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.33
Expected Value$0.55
10.2%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$5.47
9.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $18.94
Expected Value$1.68
8.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $19.38
Expected Value$1.68
8.7%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$5.47
8.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $12.43
Expected Value$1.04
8.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.33
Expected Value$0.44
8.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $67.32
Expected Value$5.47
8.1%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.69
Expected Value$0.38
8.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $64.49
Expected Value$5.12
7.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $71.29
Expected Value$5.47
7.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$5.47
6.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $25.00
Expected Value$1.68
6.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $46.99
Expected Value$2.95
6.3%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.47
Expected Value$0.44
5.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$5.12
5.8%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$2.95
5.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$5.12
5.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $55.40
Expected Value$2.95
5.3%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.14
Expected Value$1.04
5.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $34.15
Expected Value$1.68
4.9%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.86
Expected Value$0.44
4.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.93
Expected Value$1.68
3.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$15.93
3.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$2.95
3.8%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$5.12
3.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$1.68
3.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $13.68
Expected Value$0.44
3.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $12.03
Expected Value$0.38
3.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $33.86
Expected Value$1.04
3.1%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $14.63
Expected Value$0.44
3.0%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$6.46
2.7%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $43.68
Expected Value$1.04
2.4%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $16.08
Expected Value$0.38
2.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$15.93
2.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $46.65
Expected Value$1.04
2.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $321.76
Expected Value$6.46
2.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $541.39
Expected Value$9.09
1.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $594.48
Expected Value$9.09
1.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$5.12
1.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $624.33
Expected Value$9.09
1.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $683.46
Expected Value$9.09
1.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $692.25
Expected Value$9.09
1.3%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $715.47
Expected Value$9.09
1.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $82.28
Expected Value$1.04
1.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $728.24
Expected Value$9.09
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $741.41
Expected Value$9.09
1.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $32.23
Expected Value$0.38
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.04
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$1.68
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$15.93
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $155.77
Expected Value$1.04
0.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.04
0.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$5.12
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $479.50
Expected Value$2.95
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package
89 ItemsCost: $924.08
Expected Value$5.14
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$5.47
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $2441.48
Expected Value$2.95
0.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $936.52
Expected Value$1.04
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.04
0.1%F-Tier
→