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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 200 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$1.87
74.7%A-Tier
→Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.93
Expected Value$1.36
70.4%A-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
19 ItemsCost: $11.05
Expected Value$6.21
56.2%B-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $20.89
Expected Value$11.14
53.3%B-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.06
Expected Value$7.20
47.8%B-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.79
Expected Value$2.70
46.7%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.01
Expected Value$0.92
45.7%B-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.21
Expected Value$1.89
44.8%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.22
Expected Value$0.99
44.7%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.93
Expected Value$3.40
42.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.22
Expected Value$0.95
42.8%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.12
Expected Value$1.66
40.3%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.82
Expected Value$3.50
39.7%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $15.40
Expected Value$6.09
39.5%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
15 ItemsCost: $3.31
Expected Value$1.26
38.0%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.55
Expected Value$2.83
37.5%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.80
Expected Value$0.67
37.2%F-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.85
Expected Value$1.41
36.7%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $32.95
Expected Value$11.76
35.7%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $12.78
Expected Value$4.45
34.8%F-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.24
Expected Value$2.50
34.5%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.41
Expected Value$2.20
34.3%F-Tier
→
Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.11
Expected Value$1.38
33.7%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.04
Expected Value$1.36
33.6%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.96
Expected Value$0.99
33.4%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.88
33.4%F-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.33
Expected Value$1.72
32.2%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $15.33
Expected Value$4.87
31.8%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.41
Expected Value$0.76
31.5%F-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$1.75
31.5%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $64.66
Expected Value$20.28
31.4%F-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.06
Expected Value$1.88
31.0%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.73
Expected Value$3.51
29.9%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.82
Expected Value$1.11
29.1%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.77
28.9%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.25
Expected Value$1.45
27.7%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.99
Expected Value$0.81
27.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $15.36
Expected Value$4.13
26.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $5.14
Expected Value$1.36
26.4%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$6.09
26.2%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
15 ItemsCost: $2.79
Expected Value$0.73
26.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$0.76
26.0%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $19.92
Expected Value$5.15
25.8%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.18
Expected Value$1.56
25.2%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.63
Expected Value$0.89
24.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $24.98
Expected Value$6.09
24.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.74
Expected Value$0.88
23.6%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $48.43
Expected Value$11.14
23.0%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.74
Expected Value$0.62
22.6%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.07
Expected Value$2.26
22.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $50.32
Expected Value$11.14
22.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.30
Expected Value$0.95
22.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.50
Expected Value$0.76
21.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.45
Expected Value$0.95
21.4%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $28.83
Expected Value$6.09
21.1%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.10
Expected Value$0.65
21.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.70
Expected Value$0.56
20.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.78
Expected Value$0.76
20.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.82
Expected Value$1.36
19.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.03
Expected Value$0.99
19.7%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $26.71
Expected Value$5.25
19.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $57.71
Expected Value$11.14
19.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$0.92
19.3%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $110.97
Expected Value$20.59
18.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $21.68
Expected Value$3.89
18.0%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $34.46
Expected Value$6.09
17.7%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $42.22
Expected Value$7.29
17.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $59.72
Expected Value$10.19
17.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.96
Expected Value$0.99
16.6%F-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.71
Expected Value$0.91
16.0%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $45.67
Expected Value$7.29
16.0%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $53.31
Expected Value$8.39
15.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.87
Expected Value$0.88
15.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $18.76
Expected Value$2.82
15.1%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.75
Expected Value$0.56
14.9%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $49.23
Expected Value$7.29
14.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$6.09
14.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$6.09
14.4%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $74.30
Expected Value$10.19
13.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $29.13
Expected Value$3.89
13.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.97
Expected Value$0.92
13.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $21.53
Expected Value$2.82
13.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $22.59
Expected Value$2.82
12.5%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $7.34
Expected Value$0.88
12.0%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$10.19
12.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$7.29
12.0%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$6.09
11.9%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $33.32
Expected Value$3.89
11.7%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $64.43
Expected Value$7.29
11.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $12.25
Expected Value$1.36
11.1%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $14.41
Expected Value$1.59
11.0%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $26.53
Expected Value$2.82
10.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $57.69
Expected Value$6.09
10.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.56
Expected Value$0.99
10.4%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$10.19
10.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.66
Expected Value$0.56
9.9%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $75.71
Expected Value$7.29
9.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $64.50
Expected Value$6.09
9.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$7.29
9.1%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $123.31
Expected Value$11.14
9.0%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $10.35
Expected Value$0.92
8.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $32.37
Expected Value$2.82
8.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$7.29
8.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $12.04
Expected Value$0.95
7.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$7.29
7.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $53.82
Expected Value$3.89
7.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.89
7.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$6.09
6.9%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.18
Expected Value$1.36
6.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $64.36
Expected Value$3.89
6.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.82
5.6%F-Tier
→X-Ray P250 Package
1 ItemsCost: $4.12
Expected Value$0.22
5.3%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $17.90
Expected Value$0.92
5.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.07
Expected Value$3.89
5.1%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $26.16
Expected Value$1.14
4.3%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $22.63
Expected Value$0.95
4.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $33.59
Expected Value$1.36
4.0%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $23.56
Expected Value$0.92
3.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $291.01
Expected Value$11.14
3.8%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $28.67
Expected Value$0.95
3.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.28
Expected Value$1.36
3.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $751.66
Expected Value$21.90
2.9%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $770.69
Expected Value$21.90
2.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$10.19
2.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $895.57
Expected Value$21.90
2.4%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1048.14
Expected Value$21.90
2.1%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1093.68
Expected Value$21.90
2.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$6.09
1.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $78.73
Expected Value$1.36
1.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1302.84
Expected Value$21.90
1.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1307.72
Expected Value$21.90
1.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1348.09
Expected Value$21.90
1.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$2.82
1.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.36
1.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$3.89
1.3%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $124.35
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$3.89
0.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$10.19
0.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$7.29
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $746.14
Expected Value$1.36
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $4616.92
Expected Value$6.09
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1181.91
Expected Value$1.36
0.1%F-Tier
→