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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
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Allows opening approx. 255 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Paris 2023 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $1.96
Expected Value$1.52
77.5%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $2.02
Expected Value$1.13
56.0%B-Tier
→Prizma Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.74
Expected Value$1.81
48.5%B-Tier
→Kroma Kasası
14 ItemsCost: $6.90
Expected Value$3.32
48.1%B-Tier
→Kroma 3 Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$2.68
48.1%B-Tier
→Kroma 2 Kasası
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$2.85
46.5%B-Tier
→Gamma 2 Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $5.47
Expected Value$2.51
45.9%B-Tier
→Gamma Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $5.54
Expected Value$2.54
45.9%B-Tier
→Öncü Operasyonu Silah Kasası
14 ItemsCost: $7.85
Expected Value$3.54
45.1%B-Tier
→Spektrum 2 Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $5.19
Expected Value$2.29
44.1%F-Tier
→Yaban Ateşi Operasyonu Kasası
16 ItemsCost: $5.60
Expected Value$2.45
43.7%F-Tier
→Eldiven Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $13.59
Expected Value$5.90
43.4%F-Tier
→Parçalanmış Ağ Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $6.95
Expected Value$2.96
42.6%F-Tier
→Gölge Kasası
16 ItemsCost: $4.14
Expected Value$1.76
42.5%F-Tier
→CS:GO Silah Kasası 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.87
Expected Value$6.62
41.7%F-Tier
→Revolver Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $4.99
Expected Value$2.08
41.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.52
41.4%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$0.83
41.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Yaz Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $13.86
Expected Value$5.72
41.3%F-Tier
→Yılan Isırığı Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$1.20
41.1%F-Tier
→Pala Kasası
16 ItemsCost: $4.06
Expected Value$1.67
41.1%F-Tier
→Hydra Operasyonu Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $30.61
Expected Value$12.53
40.9%F-Tier
→Spektrum Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $5.93
Expected Value$2.39
40.4%F-Tier
→Prizma 2 Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.46
39.8%F-Tier
→Anka Operasyonu Silah Kasası
13 ItemsCost: $6.27
Expected Value$2.49
39.7%F-Tier
→Ufuk Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $4.03
Expected Value$1.59
39.5%F-Tier
→Kırık Diş Operasyonu Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $8.08
Expected Value$3.18
39.3%F-Tier
→Rüyalar ve Kâbuslar Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.59
Expected Value$1.41
39.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$9.09
39.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $1.84
Expected Value$0.72
39.0%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
9 ItemsCost: $54.55
Expected Value$21.07
38.6%F-Tier
→Londra 2018 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $23.72
Expected Value$9.09
38.3%F-Tier
→Ateş Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$1.17
38.2%F-Tier
→Kış Saldırısı Silah Kasası
13 ItemsCost: $12.11
Expected Value$4.50
37.2%F-Tier
→Galeri Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.22
Expected Value$1.18
36.6%F-Tier
→CS20 Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.42
Expected Value$1.24
36.3%F-Tier
→Avcı Silah Kasası
15 ItemsCost: $10.47
Expected Value$3.78
36.1%F-Tier
→Yılan Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $2.78
Expected Value$1.00
36.0%F-Tier
→Firar Operasyonu Silah Kasası
14 ItemsCost: $10.10
Expected Value$3.60
35.7%F-Tier
→Tehlikeli Bölge Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$1.24
34.3%F-Tier
→Devrim Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.93
34.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $2.35
Expected Value$0.80
34.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Hatıra Paketi
19 ItemsCost: $2.56
Expected Value$0.85
33.4%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Kış Kasası
12 ItemsCost: $15.64
Expected Value$5.12
32.7%F-Tier
→Girdap Operasyonu Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $10.96
Expected Value$3.55
32.4%F-Tier
→Clutch Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $3.02
Expected Value$0.97
32.0%F-Tier
→Parçalanmış Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.90
30.2%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $2.58
Expected Value$0.78
30.2%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $2.38
Expected Value$0.70
29.4%F-Tier
→Kilovat Kasası
17 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$0.76
28.8%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $2.87
Expected Value$0.80
28.0%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
5 ItemsCost: $27.04
Expected Value$7.50
27.7%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Kasası
9 ItemsCost: $47.15
Expected Value$12.74
27.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$0.80
26.3%F-Tier
→Bravo Operasyonu Kasası
15 ItemsCost: $57.95
Expected Value$14.67
25.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Krakov 2017 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$21.07
24.8%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $3.24
Expected Value$0.80
24.8%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
9 ItemsCost: $85.56
Expected Value$21.07
24.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $39.23
Expected Value$9.09
23.2%F-Tier
→CS:GO Silah Kasası 2
12 ItemsCost: $25.23
Expected Value$5.64
22.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $5.09
Expected Value$1.13
22.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $21.38
Expected Value$4.74
22.2%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$9.09
21.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$0.78
21.5%F-Tier
→Krakov 2017 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$9.09
21.5%F-Tier
→Köln 2016 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$21.07
21.0%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Hatıra Paketi
5 ItemsCost: $13.77
Expected Value$2.85
20.7%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $3.40
Expected Value$0.70
20.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $3.52
Expected Value$0.70
19.9%F-Tier
→CS:GO Silah Kasası
9 ItemsCost: $101.83
Expected Value$19.61
19.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $4.05
Expected Value$0.78
19.2%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Hatıra Paketi
19 ItemsCost: $4.45
Expected Value$0.85
19.2%F-Tier
→Londra 2018 Train Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $14.80
Expected Value$2.66
18.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $4.82
Expected Value$0.83
17.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Hatıra Paketi
19 ItemsCost: $5.17
Expected Value$0.85
16.5%F-Tier
→Londra 2018 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $29.08
Expected Value$4.74
16.3%F-Tier
→Londra 2018 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $38.05
Expected Value$6.05
15.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $7.11
Expected Value$1.13
15.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Hatıra Paketi
19 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$0.85
15.3%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $7.96
Expected Value$1.13
14.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $44.23
Expected Value$6.05
13.7%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $12.31
Expected Value$1.52
12.3%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $39.13
Expected Value$4.74
12.1%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $55.76
Expected Value$6.05
10.9%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $7.80
Expected Value$0.83
10.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Kaloşvar 2015 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$9.09
10.4%F-Tier
→Köln 2016 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$6.05
9.9%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $92.87
Expected Value$9.09
9.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $27.16
Expected Value$2.66
9.8%F-Tier
→Krakov 2017 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$6.05
9.6%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2015 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$9.09
9.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2015 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$7.50
9.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Kaloşvar 2015 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$4.74
8.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$4.74
8.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $30.99
Expected Value$2.66
8.6%F-Tier
→Köln 2016 Train Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $32.03
Expected Value$2.66
8.3%F-Tier
→Köln 2016 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$9.09
8.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2015 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$6.05
7.6%F-Tier
→Krakov 2017 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
5 ItemsCost: $108.12
Expected Value$7.50
6.9%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$6.05
6.7%F-Tier
→Londra 2018 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $12.48
Expected Value$0.83
6.6%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$9.09
6.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Kaloşvar 2015 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$6.05
6.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$4.74
6.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $11.46
Expected Value$0.70
6.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $14.50
Expected Value$0.83
5.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $27.13
Expected Value$1.52
5.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $15.74
Expected Value$0.83
5.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2015 Train Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.66
5.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2014 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$21.07
5.1%F-Tier
→Londra 2018 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $33.63
Expected Value$1.52
4.5%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $141.72
Expected Value$6.05
4.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $37.10
Expected Value$1.52
4.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
5 ItemsCost: $223.44
Expected Value$7.50
3.4%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $45.78
Expected Value$1.52
3.3%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$7.50
3.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2015 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $154.92
Expected Value$4.74
3.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$21.07
3.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$9.09
2.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Kaloşvar 2015 Inferno Hatıra Paketi
5 ItemsCost: $292.92
Expected Value$7.50
2.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $28.62
Expected Value$0.70
2.4%F-Tier
→Londra 2018 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
18 ItemsCost: $31.70
Expected Value$0.70
2.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $122.02
Expected Value$2.66
2.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $640.40
Expected Value$10.66
1.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2014 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$4.74
1.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $662.82
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Kaloşvar 2015 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $664.41
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→Köln 2016 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.52
1.6%F-Tier
→Köln 2016 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $701.35
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2015 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $707.89
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $720.44
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Krakov 2017 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $733.34
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.52
1.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2014 Mirage Hatıra Paketi
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$9.09
1.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack Kaloşvar 2015 Train Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$2.66
1.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $1071.70
Expected Value$10.66
1.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Köln 2015 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.52
1.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Hatıra Paketi
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$21.07
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Hatıra Paketi
16 ItemsCost: $544.22
Expected Value$4.74
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Hatıra Paketi
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$6.05
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $929.32
Expected Value$1.52
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Hatıra Paketi
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.52
0.1%F-Tier
→