BACK TO SIMULATOR
CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 251 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $1.99
Expected Value$1.93
96.9%S-Tier
→Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$2.10
84.0%S-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $2.09
Expected Value$1.16
55.6%B-Tier
→Caixa de Armas do Caçador
19 ItemsCost: $11.11
Expected Value$6.09
54.8%B-Tier
→Caixa de Arma da Operação Fogo Selvagem
16 ItemsCost: $5.77
Expected Value$3.03
52.5%B-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $1.91
Expected Value$1.00
52.2%B-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $4.24
Expected Value$1.93
45.5%B-Tier
→3ª Caixa de Armas do CS:GO
12 ItemsCost: $15.24
Expected Value$6.79
44.5%F-Tier
→Caixa Falchion
16 ItemsCost: $4.13
Expected Value$1.80
43.7%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Operação Vanguarda
14 ItemsCost: $8.09
Expected Value$3.49
43.1%F-Tier
→Caixa Sombria
16 ItemsCost: $4.28
Expected Value$1.84
43.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$9.58
41.2%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Ofensiva de Fim de Ano
13 ItemsCost: $12.63
Expected Value$5.18
41.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$1.93
40.4%F-Tier
→Caixa de eSports de Férias de 2014
17 ItemsCost: $16.57
Expected Value$6.66
40.2%F-Tier
→Caixa da Operação Presa Quebrada
17 ItemsCost: $9.14
Expected Value$3.65
39.9%F-Tier
→Caixa Cromática
14 ItemsCost: $7.20
Expected Value$2.76
38.3%F-Tier
→Caixa da Teia Fragmentada
17 ItemsCost: $8.18
Expected Value$3.11
38.0%F-Tier
→Caixa da Operação Hidra
17 ItemsCost: $34.89
Expected Value$13.20
37.8%F-Tier
→Caixa Prismática
17 ItemsCost: $3.82
Expected Value$1.44
37.6%F-Tier
→Caixa da Galeria
15 ItemsCost: $3.36
Expected Value$1.24
37.0%F-Tier
→Caixa do Horizonte
17 ItemsCost: $4.08
Expected Value$1.50
36.7%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Operação Fênix
13 ItemsCost: $6.34
Expected Value$2.31
36.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $26.51
Expected Value$9.58
36.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $2.38
Expected Value$0.85
35.8%F-Tier
→Caixa CS20
16 ItemsCost: $3.61
Expected Value$1.29
35.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $2.40
Expected Value$0.84
34.9%F-Tier
→Caixa do Ataque Ofídico
16 ItemsCost: $2.99
Expected Value$1.04
34.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $23.04
Expected Value$7.79
33.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Anubis
15 ItemsCost: $1.83
Expected Value$0.61
33.4%F-Tier
→Caixa de Arma da Operação Bravo
15 ItemsCost: $63.09
Expected Value$20.08
31.8%F-Tier
→Caixa do Revólver
17 ItemsCost: $5.26
Expected Value$1.66
31.6%F-Tier
→Caixa Gama
17 ItemsCost: $5.49
Expected Value$1.73
31.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$9.58
31.0%F-Tier
→2ª Caixa Cromática
14 ItemsCost: $6.08
Expected Value$1.88
31.0%F-Tier
→2ª Caixa Gama
17 ItemsCost: $5.52
Expected Value$1.71
30.9%F-Tier
→Caixa das Luvas
17 ItemsCost: $17.60
Expected Value$5.35
30.4%F-Tier
→Caixa de Arma da Operação Correnteza
17 ItemsCost: $12.94
Expected Value$3.91
30.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $2.76
Expected Value$0.83
29.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $2.84
Expected Value$0.84
29.5%F-Tier
→Caixa da Zona de Perigo
17 ItemsCost: $3.84
Expected Value$1.11
28.8%F-Tier
→2ª Caixa Prismática
17 ItemsCost: $3.81
Expected Value$1.10
28.8%F-Tier
→Caixa Quilowatt
17 ItemsCost: $2.67
Expected Value$0.73
27.4%F-Tier
→2ª Caixa Espectral
17 ItemsCost: $5.35
Expected Value$1.46
27.3%F-Tier
→Caixa do Coice
15 ItemsCost: $2.81
Expected Value$0.76
27.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $3.11
Expected Value$0.84
26.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Dust II
18 ItemsCost: $2.63
Expected Value$0.70
26.6%F-Tier
→Caixa Fraturada
17 ItemsCost: $3.01
Expected Value$0.79
26.1%F-Tier
→Caixa Espectral
17 ItemsCost: $6.08
Expected Value$1.58
26.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $7.42
Expected Value$1.93
26.0%F-Tier
→Caixa dos Sonhos e Pesadelos
17 ItemsCost: $3.71
Expected Value$0.96
25.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $3.44
Expected Value$0.85
24.8%F-Tier
→Caixa da Revolução
16 ItemsCost: $2.75
Expected Value$0.67
24.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $44.03
Expected Value$10.66
24.2%F-Tier
→Caixa de eSports de Fim de Ano de 2013
12 ItemsCost: $23.69
Expected Value$5.67
23.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $32.74
Expected Value$7.79
23.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $15.46
Expected Value$3.68
23.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$9.58
22.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $3.69
Expected Value$0.84
22.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$9.58
22.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $5.27
Expected Value$1.16
22.1%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Operação Libertação
14 ItemsCost: $10.27
Expected Value$2.21
21.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $4.75
Expected Value$1.00
21.0%F-Tier
→Caixa do Aperto
17 ItemsCost: $3.11
Expected Value$0.65
20.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $4.01
Expected Value$0.83
20.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $19.35
Expected Value$3.82
19.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $40.70
Expected Value$7.96
19.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $10.29
Expected Value$1.93
18.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$9.58
18.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $20.68
Expected Value$3.82
18.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $20.76
Expected Value$3.82
18.4%F-Tier
→2ª Caixa de Armas do CS:GO
12 ItemsCost: $28.64
Expected Value$5.26
18.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $6.34
Expected Value$1.16
18.3%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas do CS:GO
9 ItemsCost: $125.99
Expected Value$22.05
17.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Dust II
18 ItemsCost: $4.06
Expected Value$0.70
17.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $21.68
Expected Value$3.68
17.0%F-Tier
→3ª Caixa Cromática
17 ItemsCost: $5.73
Expected Value$0.95
16.6%F-Tier
→Caixa de eSports de 2013
9 ItemsCost: $54.15
Expected Value$8.96
16.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Vertigo
5 ItemsCost: $22.54
Expected Value$3.66
16.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $48.43
Expected Value$7.79
16.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $22.95
Expected Value$3.68
16.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $5.21
Expected Value$0.83
15.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $6.63
Expected Value$1.00
15.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $52.95
Expected Value$7.96
15.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Dust II
18 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$0.70
14.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $8.21
Expected Value$1.16
14.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $57.71
Expected Value$7.79
13.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $72.35
Expected Value$9.58
13.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$7.96
13.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $6.50
Expected Value$0.83
12.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$10.66
12.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $7.57
Expected Value$0.85
11.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $33.18
Expected Value$3.68
11.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $86.61
Expected Value$9.58
11.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $70.64
Expected Value$7.79
11.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$9.58
10.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$10.66
10.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $75.71
Expected Value$7.96
10.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $76.44
Expected Value$7.96
10.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$7.96
9.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $9.03
Expected Value$0.85
9.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$7.96
8.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $44.88
Expected Value$3.82
8.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$7.96
8.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $49.42
Expected Value$3.82
7.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $137.11
Expected Value$9.58
7.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.68
6.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $55.27
Expected Value$3.68
6.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $15.13
Expected Value$1.00
6.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $13.13
Expected Value$0.85
6.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $60.25
Expected Value$3.68
6.1%F-Tier
→Pacote da P250 Raio-X
1 ItemsCost: $4.21
Expected Value$0.22
5.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $37.63
Expected Value$1.93
5.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $21.56
Expected Value$1.00
4.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $231.63
Expected Value$10.66
4.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $42.28
Expected Value$1.93
4.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $185.15
Expected Value$7.96
4.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$3.82
4.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $24.18
Expected Value$1.00
4.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $592.72
Expected Value$23.95
4.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $792.24
Expected Value$23.95
3.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$0.85
2.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$9.58
2.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $291.30
Expected Value$7.79
2.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2014 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$10.66
2.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $970.06
Expected Value$23.95
2.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $1060.42
Expected Value$23.95
2.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $1093.68
Expected Value$23.95
2.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$1.93
2.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$3.82
2.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.93
2.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $1218.90
Expected Value$23.95
2.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $1221.47
Expected Value$23.95
2.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.93
1.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $1530.45
Expected Value$23.95
1.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $124.35
Expected Value$1.93
1.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $134.46
Expected Value$1.93
1.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2014 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $282.05
Expected Value$3.68
1.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$3.68
0.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$10.66
0.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$7.96
0.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $914.02
Expected Value$1.93
0.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2014 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $4616.92
Expected Value$9.58
0.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $1183.07
Expected Value$1.93
0.2%F-Tier
→