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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 255 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $1.96
Expected Value$1.52
77.5%S-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $2.02
Expected Value$1.13
56.0%B-Tier
→Caixa Prismática
17 ItemsCost: $3.74
Expected Value$1.81
48.5%B-Tier
→Caixa Cromática
14 ItemsCost: $6.90
Expected Value$3.32
48.1%B-Tier
→3ª Caixa Cromática
17 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$2.68
48.1%B-Tier
→2ª Caixa Cromática
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$2.85
46.5%B-Tier
→2ª Caixa Gama
17 ItemsCost: $5.47
Expected Value$2.51
45.9%B-Tier
→Caixa Gama
17 ItemsCost: $5.54
Expected Value$2.54
45.9%B-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Operação Vanguarda
14 ItemsCost: $7.85
Expected Value$3.54
45.1%B-Tier
→2ª Caixa Espectral
17 ItemsCost: $5.19
Expected Value$2.29
44.1%F-Tier
→Caixa de Arma da Operação Fogo Selvagem
16 ItemsCost: $5.60
Expected Value$2.45
43.7%F-Tier
→Caixa das Luvas
17 ItemsCost: $13.59
Expected Value$5.90
43.4%F-Tier
→Caixa da Teia Fragmentada
17 ItemsCost: $6.95
Expected Value$2.96
42.6%F-Tier
→Caixa Sombria
16 ItemsCost: $4.14
Expected Value$1.76
42.5%F-Tier
→3ª Caixa de Armas do CS:GO
12 ItemsCost: $15.87
Expected Value$6.62
41.7%F-Tier
→Caixa do Revólver
17 ItemsCost: $4.99
Expected Value$2.08
41.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.52
41.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$0.83
41.3%F-Tier
→Caixa de eSports de Férias de 2014
17 ItemsCost: $13.86
Expected Value$5.72
41.3%F-Tier
→Caixa do Ataque Ofídico
17 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$1.20
41.1%F-Tier
→Caixa Falchion
16 ItemsCost: $4.06
Expected Value$1.67
41.1%F-Tier
→Caixa da Operação Hidra
17 ItemsCost: $30.61
Expected Value$12.53
40.9%F-Tier
→Caixa Espectral
17 ItemsCost: $5.93
Expected Value$2.39
40.4%F-Tier
→2ª Caixa Prismática
17 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.46
39.8%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Operação Fênix
13 ItemsCost: $6.27
Expected Value$2.49
39.7%F-Tier
→Caixa do Horizonte
17 ItemsCost: $4.03
Expected Value$1.59
39.5%F-Tier
→Caixa da Operação Presa Quebrada
17 ItemsCost: $8.08
Expected Value$3.18
39.3%F-Tier
→Caixa dos Sonhos e Pesadelos
17 ItemsCost: $3.59
Expected Value$1.41
39.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$9.09
39.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Anubis
15 ItemsCost: $1.84
Expected Value$0.72
39.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $54.55
Expected Value$21.07
38.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $23.72
Expected Value$9.09
38.3%F-Tier
→Caixa Febril
17 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$1.17
38.2%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Ofensiva de Fim de Ano
13 ItemsCost: $12.11
Expected Value$4.50
37.2%F-Tier
→Caixa da Galeria
17 ItemsCost: $3.22
Expected Value$1.18
36.6%F-Tier
→Caixa CS20
17 ItemsCost: $3.42
Expected Value$1.24
36.3%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas do Caçador
15 ItemsCost: $10.47
Expected Value$3.78
36.1%F-Tier
→Caixa do Coice
17 ItemsCost: $2.78
Expected Value$1.00
36.0%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas da Operação Libertação
14 ItemsCost: $10.10
Expected Value$3.60
35.7%F-Tier
→Caixa da Zona de Perigo
17 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$1.24
34.3%F-Tier
→Caixa da Revolução
17 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.93
34.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $2.35
Expected Value$0.80
34.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $2.56
Expected Value$0.85
33.4%F-Tier
→Caixa de eSports de Fim de Ano de 2013
12 ItemsCost: $15.64
Expected Value$5.12
32.7%F-Tier
→Caixa de Arma da Operação Correnteza
17 ItemsCost: $10.96
Expected Value$3.55
32.4%F-Tier
→Caixa do Aperto
17 ItemsCost: $3.02
Expected Value$0.97
32.0%F-Tier
→Caixa Fraturada
17 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.90
30.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Dust II
18 ItemsCost: $2.58
Expected Value$0.78
30.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Paris 2023 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $2.38
Expected Value$0.70
29.4%F-Tier
→Caixa Quilowatt
17 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$0.76
28.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $2.87
Expected Value$0.80
28.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $27.04
Expected Value$7.50
27.7%F-Tier
→Caixa de eSports de 2013
9 ItemsCost: $47.15
Expected Value$12.74
27.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$0.80
26.3%F-Tier
→Caixa de Arma da Operação Bravo
15 ItemsCost: $57.95
Expected Value$14.67
25.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$21.07
24.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Mirage
18 ItemsCost: $3.24
Expected Value$0.80
24.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $85.56
Expected Value$21.07
24.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $39.23
Expected Value$9.09
23.2%F-Tier
→2ª Caixa de Armas do CS:GO
12 ItemsCost: $25.23
Expected Value$5.64
22.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $5.09
Expected Value$1.13
22.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $21.38
Expected Value$4.74
22.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$9.09
21.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Dust II
18 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$0.78
21.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$9.09
21.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$21.07
21.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Vertigo
5 ItemsCost: $13.77
Expected Value$2.85
20.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $3.40
Expected Value$0.70
20.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $3.52
Expected Value$0.70
19.9%F-Tier
→Caixa de Armas do CS:GO
9 ItemsCost: $101.83
Expected Value$19.61
19.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Dust II
18 ItemsCost: $4.05
Expected Value$0.78
19.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $4.45
Expected Value$0.85
19.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $14.80
Expected Value$2.66
18.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Estocolmo 2021 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $4.82
Expected Value$0.83
17.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $5.17
Expected Value$0.85
16.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $29.08
Expected Value$4.74
16.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $38.05
Expected Value$6.05
15.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $7.11
Expected Value$1.13
15.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Antuérpia 2022 — Ancient
19 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$0.85
15.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Vertigo
18 ItemsCost: $7.96
Expected Value$1.13
14.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $44.23
Expected Value$6.05
13.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $12.31
Expected Value$1.52
12.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $39.13
Expected Value$4.74
12.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $55.76
Expected Value$6.05
10.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $7.80
Expected Value$0.83
10.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$9.09
10.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$6.05
9.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $92.87
Expected Value$9.09
9.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $27.16
Expected Value$2.66
9.8%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$6.05
9.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$9.09
9.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$7.50
9.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$4.74
8.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$4.74
8.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $30.99
Expected Value$2.66
8.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $32.03
Expected Value$2.66
8.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$9.09
8.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$6.05
7.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $108.12
Expected Value$7.50
6.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$6.05
6.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $12.48
Expected Value$0.83
6.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$9.09
6.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$6.05
6.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$4.74
6.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Rio 2022 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $11.46
Expected Value$0.70
6.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $14.50
Expected Value$0.83
5.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $27.13
Expected Value$1.52
5.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Katowice 2019 — Inferno
18 ItemsCost: $15.74
Expected Value$0.83
5.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.66
5.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2014 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$21.07
5.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $33.63
Expected Value$1.52
4.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $141.72
Expected Value$6.05
4.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $37.10
Expected Value$1.52
4.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $223.44
Expected Value$7.50
3.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $45.78
Expected Value$1.52
3.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$7.50
3.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $154.92
Expected Value$4.74
3.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$21.07
3.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$9.09
2.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Inferno
5 ItemsCost: $292.92
Expected Value$7.50
2.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Berlim 2019 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $28.62
Expected Value$0.70
2.4%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Londres 2018 — Nuke
18 ItemsCost: $31.70
Expected Value$0.70
2.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $122.02
Expected Value$2.66
2.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $640.40
Expected Value$10.66
1.7%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2014 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$4.74
1.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Atlanta 2017 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $662.82
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $664.41
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.52
1.6%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Colônia 2016 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $701.35
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $707.89
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Boston 2018 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $720.44
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do Cracóvia 2017 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $733.34
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do MLG Columbus 2016 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.52
1.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2014 — Mirage
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$9.09
1.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 — Train
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$2.66
1.1%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Cobblestone
15 ItemsCost: $1071.70
Expected Value$10.66
1.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Colônia 2015 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.52
1.0%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Nuke
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$21.07
0.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Dust II
16 ItemsCost: $544.22
Expected Value$4.74
0.9%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Cache
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$6.05
0.3%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do DreamHack 2014 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $929.32
Expected Value$1.52
0.2%F-Tier
→Pacote de Lembrança do ESL One Katowice 2015 — Overpass
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.52
0.1%F-Tier
→