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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 200 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$1.87
74.7%A-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de Paris 2023
15 ItemsCost: $1.93
Expected Value$1.36
70.4%A-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Chasseur
19 ItemsCost: $11.05
Expected Value$6.21
56.2%B-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Boston 2018
5 ItemsCost: $20.89
Expected Value$11.14
53.3%B-Tier
→Caisse d'arme CS:GO N°3
12 ItemsCost: $15.06
Expected Value$7.20
47.8%B-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Wildfire
16 ItemsCost: $5.79
Expected Value$2.70
46.7%B-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.01
Expected Value$0.92
45.7%B-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Sombre
16 ItemsCost: $4.21
Expected Value$1.89
44.8%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Vertigo de Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.22
Expected Value$0.99
44.7%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme de l'Opération Vanguard
14 ItemsCost: $7.93
Expected Value$3.40
42.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.22
Expected Value$0.95
42.8%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Fauchon
16 ItemsCost: $4.12
Expected Value$1.66
40.3%F-Tier
→Caisse de l'Opération Broken Fang
17 ItemsCost: $8.82
Expected Value$3.50
39.7%F-Tier
→Caisse estivale eSports 2014
17 ItemsCost: $15.40
Expected Value$6.09
39.5%F-Tier
→Caisse de Galerie
15 ItemsCost: $3.31
Expected Value$1.26
38.0%F-Tier
→Caisse Shattered Web
17 ItemsCost: $7.55
Expected Value$2.83
37.5%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Anubis de Paris 2023
15 ItemsCost: $1.80
Expected Value$0.67
37.2%F-Tier
→Caisse Prisma
17 ItemsCost: $3.85
Expected Value$1.41
36.7%F-Tier
→Caisse de l'Opération Hydra
17 ItemsCost: $32.95
Expected Value$11.76
35.7%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Winter Offensive
13 ItemsCost: $12.78
Expected Value$4.45
34.8%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Saturation
14 ItemsCost: $7.24
Expected Value$2.50
34.5%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme de l'Opération Phoenix
13 ItemsCost: $6.41
Expected Value$2.20
34.3%F-Tier
→Caisse CS20
16 ItemsCost: $3.52
Expected Value$1.19
33.8%F-Tier
→Caisse Horizon
17 ItemsCost: $4.11
Expected Value$1.38
33.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de Rio 2022
15 ItemsCost: $4.04
Expected Value$1.36
33.6%F-Tier
→Caisse d'armes envenimée
16 ItemsCost: $2.96
Expected Value$0.99
33.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Ancient de Paris 2023
19 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.88
33.4%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Gamma N°2
17 ItemsCost: $5.33
Expected Value$1.72
32.2%F-Tier
→Caisse de gants
17 ItemsCost: $15.33
Expected Value$4.87
31.8%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.41
Expected Value$0.76
31.5%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Gamma
17 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$1.75
31.5%F-Tier
→Caisse de l'Opération Bravo
15 ItemsCost: $64.66
Expected Value$20.28
31.4%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Saturation N°2
14 ItemsCost: $6.06
Expected Value$1.88
31.0%F-Tier
→Caisse de l'Opération Riptide
17 ItemsCost: $11.73
Expected Value$3.51
29.9%F-Tier
→Caisse Prisma 2
17 ItemsCost: $3.82
Expected Value$1.11
29.1%F-Tier
→Caisse Kilowatt
17 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.77
28.9%F-Tier
→Caisse spectrale N°2
17 ItemsCost: $5.25
Expected Value$1.45
27.7%F-Tier
→Caisse Fracture
17 ItemsCost: $2.99
Expected Value$0.81
27.2%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Vertigo de Berlin 2019
5 ItemsCost: $15.36
Expected Value$4.13
26.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de Stockholm 2021
15 ItemsCost: $5.14
Expected Value$1.36
26.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Berlin 2019
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$6.09
26.2%F-Tier
→Caisse Recul du serpent
15 ItemsCost: $2.79
Expected Value$0.73
26.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$0.76
26.0%F-Tier
→Caisse hivernale eSports 2013
12 ItemsCost: $19.92
Expected Value$5.15
25.8%F-Tier
→Caisse spectrale
17 ItemsCost: $6.18
Expected Value$1.56
25.2%F-Tier
→Caisse Rêves et cauchemars
17 ItemsCost: $3.63
Expected Value$0.89
24.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Londres 2018
14 ItemsCost: $24.98
Expected Value$6.09
24.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Ancient de Stockholm 2021
19 ItemsCost: $3.74
Expected Value$0.88
23.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno du MLG Columbus 2016
5 ItemsCost: $48.43
Expected Value$11.14
23.0%F-Tier
→Caisse Révolution
16 ItemsCost: $2.74
Expected Value$0.62
22.6%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme de l'Opération Breakout
14 ItemsCost: $10.07
Expected Value$2.26
22.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de l'ESL One Cologne 2015
5 ItemsCost: $50.32
Expected Value$11.14
22.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke d'Anvers 2022
18 ItemsCost: $4.30
Expected Value$0.95
22.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $3.50
Expected Value$0.76
21.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $4.45
Expected Value$0.95
21.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Boston 2018
14 ItemsCost: $28.83
Expected Value$6.09
21.1%F-Tier
→Caisse du dernier survivant
17 ItemsCost: $3.10
Expected Value$0.65
21.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $2.70
Expected Value$0.56
20.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage d'Anvers 2022
18 ItemsCost: $3.78
Expected Value$0.76
20.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass d'Anvers 2022
15 ItemsCost: $6.82
Expected Value$1.36
19.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Vertigo de Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $5.03
Expected Value$0.99
19.7%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme CS:GO N°2
12 ItemsCost: $26.71
Expected Value$5.25
19.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de l'ESL One Katowice 2015
5 ItemsCost: $57.71
Expected Value$11.14
19.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$0.92
19.3%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme CS:GO
9 ItemsCost: $110.97
Expected Value$20.59
18.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de Londres 2018
16 ItemsCost: $21.68
Expected Value$3.89
18.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Katowice 2019
14 ItemsCost: $34.46
Expected Value$6.09
17.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache de Boston 2018
13 ItemsCost: $42.22
Expected Value$7.29
17.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke d'Atlanta 2017
9 ItemsCost: $59.72
Expected Value$10.19
17.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Vertigo d'Anvers 2022
18 ItemsCost: $5.96
Expected Value$0.99
16.6%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Saturation N°3
17 ItemsCost: $5.71
Expected Value$0.91
16.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache d'Atlanta 2017
13 ItemsCost: $45.67
Expected Value$7.29
16.0%F-Tier
→Caisse eSports 2013
9 ItemsCost: $53.31
Expected Value$8.39
15.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Ancient d'Anvers 2022
19 ItemsCost: $5.87
Expected Value$0.88
15.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Train de Berlin 2019
15 ItemsCost: $18.76
Expected Value$2.82
15.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $3.75
Expected Value$0.56
14.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache de Londres 2018
13 ItemsCost: $49.23
Expected Value$7.29
14.8%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage d'Atlanta 2017
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$6.09
14.5%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de Cracovie 2017
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$6.09
14.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de Boston 2018
9 ItemsCost: $74.30
Expected Value$10.19
13.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de Katowice 2019
16 ItemsCost: $29.13
Expected Value$3.89
13.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $6.97
Expected Value$0.92
13.2%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Train de Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $21.53
Expected Value$2.82
13.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Train de Londres 2018
15 ItemsCost: $22.59
Expected Value$2.82
12.5%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Ancient de Rio 2022
19 ItemsCost: $7.34
Expected Value$0.88
12.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de Cracovie 2017
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$10.19
12.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cachede Cologne 2016
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$7.29
12.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage du MLG Columbus 2016
14 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$6.09
11.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de Berlin 2019
16 ItemsCost: $33.32
Expected Value$3.89
11.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache de Cracovie 2017
13 ItemsCost: $64.43
Expected Value$7.29
11.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de Berlin 2019
15 ItemsCost: $12.25
Expected Value$1.36
11.1%F-Tier
→Caisse d'arme Revolver
17 ItemsCost: $14.41
Expected Value$1.59
11.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Train d'Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $26.53
Expected Value$2.82
10.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de l'ESL One Cologne 2015
14 ItemsCost: $57.69
Expected Value$6.09
10.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Vertigo de Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $9.56
Expected Value$0.99
10.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nukede Cologne 2016
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$10.19
10.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II d'Anvers 2022
18 ItemsCost: $5.66
Expected Value$0.56
9.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache de Katowice 2019
13 ItemsCost: $75.71
Expected Value$7.29
9.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Miragede Cologne 2016
14 ItemsCost: $64.50
Expected Value$6.09
9.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache de l'ESL One Cologne 2015
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$7.29
9.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Cracovie 2017
5 ItemsCost: $123.31
Expected Value$11.14
9.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Berlin 2019
18 ItemsCost: $10.35
Expected Value$0.92
8.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Trainde Cologne 2016
15 ItemsCost: $32.37
Expected Value$2.82
8.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache du MLG Columbus 2016
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$7.29
8.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $12.04
Expected Value$0.95
7.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache de la DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$7.29
7.8%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de l'ESL One Cologne 2015
16 ItemsCost: $53.82
Expected Value$3.89
7.2%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de la DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.89
7.2%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de la DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$6.09
6.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de Katowice 2019
15 ItemsCost: $20.18
Expected Value$1.36
6.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de l'ESL One Katowice 2015
16 ItemsCost: $64.36
Expected Value$3.89
6.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Train de l'ESL One Cologne 2015
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.82
5.6%F-Tier
→P250 | Rayons X
1 ItemsCost: $4.12
Expected Value$0.22
5.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Londres 2018
18 ItemsCost: $17.90
Expected Value$0.92
5.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II d'Atlanta 2017
16 ItemsCost: $77.07
Expected Value$3.89
5.1%F-Tier
→Caisse d'armes Zone de danger
17 ItemsCost: $26.16
Expected Value$1.14
4.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de Berlin 2019
18 ItemsCost: $22.63
Expected Value$0.95
4.2%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass d'Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $33.59
Expected Value$1.36
4.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de Katowice 2019
18 ItemsCost: $23.56
Expected Value$0.92
3.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Inferno de la DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
5 ItemsCost: $291.01
Expected Value$11.14
3.8%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de Londres 2018
18 ItemsCost: $28.67
Expected Value$0.95
3.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $42.28
Expected Value$1.36
3.2%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestone de l'ESL One Cologne 2015
15 ItemsCost: $751.66
Expected Value$21.90
2.9%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestonede Cologne 2016
15 ItemsCost: $770.69
Expected Value$21.90
2.8%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de l'ESL One Cologne 2014
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$10.19
2.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestone de la DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
15 ItemsCost: $895.57
Expected Value$21.90
2.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestone de Cracovie 2017
15 ItemsCost: $1048.14
Expected Value$21.90
2.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestone de Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $1093.68
Expected Value$21.90
2.0%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de la DreamHack 2014
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$6.09
1.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de Londres 2018
15 ItemsCost: $78.73
Expected Value$1.36
1.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestone de l'ESL One Katowice 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1302.84
Expected Value$21.90
1.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestone du MLG Columbus 2016
15 ItemsCost: $1307.72
Expected Value$21.90
1.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cobblestone d'Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $1348.09
Expected Value$21.90
1.6%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Train de la DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$2.82
1.5%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpassde Cologne 2016
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.36
1.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de l'ESL One Cologne 2014
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$3.89
1.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass du MLG Columbus 2016
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de l'ESL One Cologne 2015
15 ItemsCost: $124.35
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Dust II de la DreamHack 2014
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$3.89
0.7%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Nuke de la DreamHack 2014
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$10.19
0.4%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Cache de la DreamHack 2014
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$7.29
0.3%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de la DreamHack 2014
15 ItemsCost: $746.14
Expected Value$1.36
0.2%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Mirage de l'ESL One Cologne 2014
14 ItemsCost: $4616.92
Expected Value$6.09
0.1%F-Tier
→Paquet souvenir Overpass de l'ESL One Katowice 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1181.91
Expected Value$1.36
0.1%F-Tier
→