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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 255 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Paquete regalo de Overpass - París 2023
15 ItemsCost: $1.96
Expected Value$1.52
77.5%S-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Vertigo - París 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.02
Expected Value$1.13
56.0%B-Tier
→Caja Prisma
17 ItemsCost: $3.74
Expected Value$1.81
48.5%B-Tier
→Caja Croma
14 ItemsCost: $6.90
Expected Value$3.32
48.1%B-Tier
→Caja Croma 3
17 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$2.68
48.1%B-Tier
→Caja Croma 2
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$2.85
46.5%B-Tier
→Caja Gamma 2
17 ItemsCost: $5.47
Expected Value$2.51
45.9%B-Tier
→Caja Gamma
17 ItemsCost: $5.54
Expected Value$2.54
45.9%B-Tier
→Caja de armas de la Operación Vanguard
14 ItemsCost: $7.85
Expected Value$3.54
45.1%B-Tier
→Caja Espectro 2
17 ItemsCost: $5.19
Expected Value$2.29
44.1%F-Tier
→Caja de armas de la Operación Wildfire
16 ItemsCost: $5.60
Expected Value$2.45
43.7%F-Tier
→Caja de Guantes
17 ItemsCost: $13.59
Expected Value$5.90
43.4%F-Tier
→Caja de Shattered Web
17 ItemsCost: $6.95
Expected Value$2.96
42.6%F-Tier
→Caja Sombría
16 ItemsCost: $4.14
Expected Value$1.76
42.5%F-Tier
→Caja de armas de CS:GO 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.87
Expected Value$6.62
41.7%F-Tier
→Caja Revólver
17 ItemsCost: $4.99
Expected Value$2.08
41.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Río 2022
15 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.52
41.4%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - París 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.00
Expected Value$0.83
41.3%F-Tier
→Maletín eSports de verano 2014
17 ItemsCost: $13.86
Expected Value$5.72
41.3%F-Tier
→Caja Picadura
17 ItemsCost: $2.92
Expected Value$1.20
41.1%F-Tier
→Caja Alfanje
16 ItemsCost: $4.06
Expected Value$1.67
41.1%F-Tier
→Caja de la Operación Hydra
17 ItemsCost: $30.61
Expected Value$12.53
40.9%F-Tier
→Caja Espectro
17 ItemsCost: $5.93
Expected Value$2.39
40.4%F-Tier
→Caja Prisma 2
17 ItemsCost: $3.67
Expected Value$1.46
39.8%F-Tier
→Caja de armas de la Operación Phoenix
13 ItemsCost: $6.27
Expected Value$2.49
39.7%F-Tier
→Caja Horizonte
17 ItemsCost: $4.03
Expected Value$1.59
39.5%F-Tier
→Caja de la Operación Broken Fang
17 ItemsCost: $8.08
Expected Value$3.18
39.3%F-Tier
→Caja Sueños y Pesadillas
17 ItemsCost: $3.59
Expected Value$1.41
39.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Berlín 2019
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$9.09
39.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Anubis - París 2023
15 ItemsCost: $1.84
Expected Value$0.72
39.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Atlanta 2017
9 ItemsCost: $54.55
Expected Value$21.07
38.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Londres 2018
14 ItemsCost: $23.72
Expected Value$9.09
38.3%F-Tier
→Caja Fiebre
17 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$1.17
38.2%F-Tier
→Caja de armas de la Ofensiva Invernal
13 ItemsCost: $12.11
Expected Value$4.50
37.2%F-Tier
→Caja Galería
17 ItemsCost: $3.22
Expected Value$1.18
36.6%F-Tier
→
Caja de armas del Cazador
15 ItemsCost: $10.47
Expected Value$3.78
36.1%F-Tier
→Caja Retroceso
17 ItemsCost: $2.78
Expected Value$1.00
36.0%F-Tier
→Caja de armas de la Operación Breakout
14 ItemsCost: $10.10
Expected Value$3.60
35.7%F-Tier
→Caja Danger Zone
17 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$1.24
34.3%F-Tier
→Caja Revolución
17 ItemsCost: $2.71
Expected Value$0.93
34.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - París 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.35
Expected Value$0.80
34.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Ancient - París 2023
19 ItemsCost: $2.56
Expected Value$0.85
33.4%F-Tier
→Maletín eSports de invierno 2013
12 ItemsCost: $15.64
Expected Value$5.12
32.7%F-Tier
→Caja de la Operación Riptide
17 ItemsCost: $10.96
Expected Value$3.55
32.4%F-Tier
→Caja Clutch
17 ItemsCost: $3.02
Expected Value$0.97
32.0%F-Tier
→Caja Fractura
17 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.90
30.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - Río 2022
18 ItemsCost: $2.58
Expected Value$0.78
30.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - París 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.38
Expected Value$0.70
29.4%F-Tier
→Caja Kilovatio
17 ItemsCost: $2.64
Expected Value$0.76
28.8%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Río 2022
18 ItemsCost: $2.87
Expected Value$0.80
28.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - Boston 2018
5 ItemsCost: $27.04
Expected Value$7.50
27.7%F-Tier
→Maletín eSports 2013
9 ItemsCost: $47.15
Expected Value$12.74
27.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Estocolmo 2021
18 ItemsCost: $3.05
Expected Value$0.80
26.3%F-Tier
→Caja de la Operación Bravo
15 ItemsCost: $57.95
Expected Value$14.67
25.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Amberes 2022
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Estocolmo 2021
15 ItemsCost: $6.12
Expected Value$1.52
24.8%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Cracovia 2017
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$21.07
24.8%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Amberes 2022
18 ItemsCost: $3.24
Expected Value$0.80
24.8%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Boston 2018
9 ItemsCost: $85.56
Expected Value$21.07
24.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Katowice 2019
14 ItemsCost: $39.23
Expected Value$9.09
23.2%F-Tier
→Caja de armas de CS:GO 2
12 ItemsCost: $25.23
Expected Value$5.64
22.4%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Vertigo - Estocolmo 2021
18 ItemsCost: $5.09
Expected Value$1.13
22.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - Berlín 2019
16 ItemsCost: $21.38
Expected Value$4.74
22.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Atlanta 2017
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$9.09
21.7%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - Estocolmo 2021
18 ItemsCost: $3.62
Expected Value$0.78
21.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Cracovia 2017
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$9.09
21.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Colonia 2016
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$21.07
21.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Vertigo - Berlín 2019
5 ItemsCost: $13.77
Expected Value$2.85
20.7%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Estocolmo 2021
18 ItemsCost: $3.40
Expected Value$0.70
20.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Amberes 2022
18 ItemsCost: $3.52
Expected Value$0.70
19.9%F-Tier
→Caja de armas de CS:GO
9 ItemsCost: $101.83
Expected Value$19.61
19.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - Amberes 2022
18 ItemsCost: $4.05
Expected Value$0.78
19.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Ancient - Estocolmo 2021
19 ItemsCost: $4.45
Expected Value$0.85
19.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Train - Londres 2018
15 ItemsCost: $14.80
Expected Value$2.66
18.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - Estocolmo 2021
18 ItemsCost: $4.82
Expected Value$0.83
17.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Ancient - Río 2022
19 ItemsCost: $5.17
Expected Value$0.85
16.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - Londres 2018
16 ItemsCost: $29.08
Expected Value$4.74
16.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - Londres 2018
13 ItemsCost: $38.05
Expected Value$6.05
15.9%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Vertigo - Amberes 2022
18 ItemsCost: $7.11
Expected Value$1.13
15.9%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Ancient - Amberes 2022
19 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$0.85
15.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Vertigo - Río 2022
18 ItemsCost: $7.96
Expected Value$1.13
14.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - Katowice 2019
13 ItemsCost: $44.23
Expected Value$6.05
13.7%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Berlín 2019
15 ItemsCost: $12.31
Expected Value$1.52
12.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - Katowice 2019
16 ItemsCost: $39.13
Expected Value$4.74
12.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - Boston 2018
13 ItemsCost: $55.76
Expected Value$6.05
10.9%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - Río 2022
18 ItemsCost: $7.80
Expected Value$0.83
10.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$9.09
10.4%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - Colonia 2016
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$6.05
9.9%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Boston 2018
14 ItemsCost: $92.87
Expected Value$9.09
9.8%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Train - Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $27.16
Expected Value$2.66
9.8%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - Cracovia 2017
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$6.05
9.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - ESL One Colonia 2015
14 ItemsCost: $95.52
Expected Value$9.09
9.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - ESL One Colonia 2015
5 ItemsCost: $79.33
Expected Value$7.50
9.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$4.74
8.7%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - ESL One Katowice 2015
16 ItemsCost: $54.93
Expected Value$4.74
8.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Train - Berlín 2019
15 ItemsCost: $30.99
Expected Value$2.66
8.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Train - Colonia 2016
15 ItemsCost: $32.03
Expected Value$2.66
8.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - Colonia 2016
14 ItemsCost: $113.32
Expected Value$9.09
8.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - ESL One Colonia 2015
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$6.05
7.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - Cracovia 2017
5 ItemsCost: $108.12
Expected Value$7.50
6.9%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - MLG Columbus 2016
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$6.05
6.7%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - Londres 2018
18 ItemsCost: $12.48
Expected Value$0.83
6.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - MLG Columbus 2016
14 ItemsCost: $140.60
Expected Value$9.09
6.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$6.05
6.4%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - Atlanta 2017
16 ItemsCost: $77.58
Expected Value$4.74
6.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Río 2022
18 ItemsCost: $11.46
Expected Value$0.70
6.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - Berlín 2019
18 ItemsCost: $14.50
Expected Value$0.83
5.7%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Katowice 2019
15 ItemsCost: $27.13
Expected Value$1.52
5.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - Katowice 2019
18 ItemsCost: $15.74
Expected Value$0.83
5.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Train - ESL One Colonia 2015
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.66
5.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - ESL One Colonia 2014
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$21.07
5.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Londres 2018
15 ItemsCost: $33.63
Expected Value$1.52
4.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - Atlanta 2017
13 ItemsCost: $141.72
Expected Value$6.05
4.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $37.10
Expected Value$1.52
4.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - ESL One Katowice 2015
5 ItemsCost: $223.44
Expected Value$7.50
3.4%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $45.78
Expected Value$1.52
3.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - MLG Columbus 2016
5 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$7.50
3.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - ESL One Colonia 2015
16 ItemsCost: $154.92
Expected Value$4.74
3.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - ESL One Katowice 2015
9 ItemsCost: $691.46
Expected Value$21.07
3.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - DreamHack 2014
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$9.09
2.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Inferno - DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
5 ItemsCost: $292.92
Expected Value$7.50
2.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Berlín 2019
18 ItemsCost: $28.62
Expected Value$0.70
2.4%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - Londres 2018
18 ItemsCost: $31.70
Expected Value$0.70
2.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Train - Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $122.02
Expected Value$2.66
2.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - MLG Columbus 2016
15 ItemsCost: $640.40
Expected Value$10.66
1.7%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - ESL One Colonia 2014
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$4.74
1.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $662.82
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
15 ItemsCost: $664.41
Expected Value$10.66
1.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - Colonia 2016
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.52
1.6%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - Colonia 2016
15 ItemsCost: $701.35
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - ESL One Colonia 2015
15 ItemsCost: $707.89
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $720.44
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - Cracovia 2017
15 ItemsCost: $733.34
Expected Value$10.66
1.5%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - MLG Columbus 2016
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.52
1.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Mirage - ESL One Colonia 2014
14 ItemsCost: $816.95
Expected Value$9.09
1.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Train - DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015
15 ItemsCost: $239.39
Expected Value$2.66
1.1%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cobblestone - ESL One Katowice 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1071.70
Expected Value$10.66
1.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - ESL One Colonia 2015
15 ItemsCost: $159.54
Expected Value$1.52
1.0%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Nuke - DreamHack 2014
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$21.07
0.9%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Dust II - DreamHack 2014
16 ItemsCost: $544.22
Expected Value$4.74
0.9%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Cache - DreamHack 2014
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$6.05
0.3%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - DreamHack 2014
15 ItemsCost: $929.32
Expected Value$1.52
0.2%F-Tier
→Paquete regalo de Overpass - ESL One Katowice 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1189.64
Expected Value$1.52
0.1%F-Tier
→