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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 200 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$1.95
78.0%S-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Paris 2023
15 ItemsCost: $1.98
Expected Value$1.36
68.9%A-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Jagd“
19 ItemsCost: $11.08
Expected Value$5.98
54.0%B-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Vertigo – Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.16
Expected Value$1.08
50.2%B-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.28
Expected Value$1.14
49.9%B-Tier
→Waffenkiste „CS:GO 3“
12 ItemsCost: $15.00
Expected Value$7.08
47.2%B-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $1.92
Expected Value$0.87
45.5%B-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Wildfire“
16 ItemsCost: $5.96
Expected Value$2.70
45.3%B-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Shadow“
16 ItemsCost: $4.18
Expected Value$1.85
44.2%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Falchion“
16 ItemsCost: $4.10
Expected Value$1.68
41.0%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Vanguard“
14 ItemsCost: $7.88
Expected Value$3.22
40.9%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „E-Sport Sommer 2014“
17 ItemsCost: $15.35
Expected Value$6.22
40.5%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Zerbrochener Reißzahn“
17 ItemsCost: $8.71
Expected Value$3.48
39.9%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Hydra“
17 ItemsCost: $31.68
Expected Value$11.89
37.5%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Zerfetztes Netz“
17 ItemsCost: $7.67
Expected Value$2.86
37.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Anubis – Paris 2023
15 ItemsCost: $1.80
Expected Value$0.66
36.9%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Chroma“
14 ItemsCost: $7.25
Expected Value$2.67
36.8%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Galerie“
15 ItemsCost: $3.30
Expected Value$1.21
36.7%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Phoenix“
13 ItemsCost: $6.25
Expected Value$2.26
36.2%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Prisma“
17 ItemsCost: $3.89
Expected Value$1.39
35.7%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Winteroffensive“
13 ItemsCost: $12.63
Expected Value$4.42
35.0%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Rio 2022
15 ItemsCost: $3.98
Expected Value$1.36
34.3%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Schlangenbiss”
16 ItemsCost: $2.95
Expected Value$1.00
33.9%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Horizont“
17 ItemsCost: $4.12
Expected Value$1.39
33.8%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „CS20“
16 ItemsCost: $3.54
Expected Value$1.19
33.7%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Bravo“
15 ItemsCost: $61.72
Expected Value$20.34
32.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Paris 2023
18 ItemsCost: $2.36
Expected Value$0.76
32.2%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Handschuhe“
17 ItemsCost: $15.31
Expected Value$4.84
31.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Ancient – Paris 2023
19 ItemsCost: $2.66
Expected Value$0.83
31.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – Boston 2018
5 ItemsCost: $21.60
Expected Value$6.72
31.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Antwerpen 2022
15 ItemsCost: $4.41
Expected Value$1.36
30.9%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Gamma 2“
17 ItemsCost: $5.52
Expected Value$1.70
30.7%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Revolver“
17 ItemsCost: $5.17
Expected Value$1.58
30.6%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Chroma 2“
14 ItemsCost: $6.04
Expected Value$1.84
30.4%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Gamma“
17 ItemsCost: $5.54
Expected Value$1.68
30.3%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Springflut“
17 ItemsCost: $11.70
Expected Value$3.48
29.7%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Gefahrenzone“
17 ItemsCost: $3.75
Expected Value$1.11
29.5%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Prisma 2“
17 ItemsCost: $3.86
Expected Value$1.08
28.0%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Kilowatt“
17 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.74
27.8%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $2.78
Expected Value$0.76
27.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Antwerpen 2022
18 ItemsCost: $4.22
Expected Value$1.14
26.9%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Spektrum 2“
17 ItemsCost: $5.34
Expected Value$1.42
26.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Stockholm 2021
15 ItemsCost: $5.14
Expected Value$1.36
26.5%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Durchbruch“
17 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.78
26.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $4.41
Expected Value$1.14
25.8%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Spektrum“
17 ItemsCost: $6.04
Expected Value$1.53
25.3%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Träume & Alpträume“
17 ItemsCost: $3.72
Expected Value$0.94
25.3%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „E-Sport Winter 2013“
12 ItemsCost: $19.42
Expected Value$4.91
25.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $3.03
Expected Value$0.76
25.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Berlin 2019
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$5.80
25.0%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Rückstoß“
15 ItemsCost: $2.80
Expected Value$0.70
24.9%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Revolution“
16 ItemsCost: $2.74
Expected Value$0.65
23.8%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Antwerpen 2022
18 ItemsCost: $3.30
Expected Value$0.76
23.0%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Operation Breakout“
14 ItemsCost: $10.05
Expected Value$2.30
22.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – Berlin 2019
16 ItemsCost: $15.46
Expected Value$3.49
22.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $2.70
Expected Value$0.60
22.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Vertigo – Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $4.92
Expected Value$1.08
22.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – London 2018
14 ItemsCost: $26.51
Expected Value$5.80
21.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Ancient – Stockholm 2021
19 ItemsCost: $3.92
Expected Value$0.83
21.2%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Clutch“
17 ItemsCost: $3.10
Expected Value$0.64
20.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – Krakau 2017
5 ItemsCost: $32.74
Expected Value$6.72
20.5%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „CS:GO 2“
12 ItemsCost: $25.87
Expected Value$5.18
20.0%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Train – London 2018
15 ItemsCost: $14.24
Expected Value$2.83
19.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Atlanta 2017
9 ItemsCost: $44.03
Expected Value$8.62
19.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Boston 2018
14 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$5.80
18.8%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$0.87
18.3%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „CS:GO“
9 ItemsCost: $115.42
Expected Value$20.93
18.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Vertigo – Antwerpen 2022
18 ItemsCost: $6.00
Expected Value$1.08
18.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Vertigo – Berlin 2019
5 ItemsCost: $22.54
Expected Value$3.72
16.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Ancient – Antwerpen 2022
19 ItemsCost: $5.10
Expected Value$0.83
16.3%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „E-Sport 2013“
9 ItemsCost: $51.18
Expected Value$8.25
16.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – London 2018
16 ItemsCost: $21.68
Expected Value$3.49
16.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Ancient – Rio 2022
19 ItemsCost: $5.19
Expected Value$0.83
16.0%F-Tier
→Waffenkiste „Chroma 3“
17 ItemsCost: $5.64
Expected Value$0.90
15.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – Stockholm 2021
18 ItemsCost: $3.87
Expected Value$0.60
15.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – Kattowitz 2019
16 ItemsCost: $22.95
Expected Value$3.49
15.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – London 2018
13 ItemsCost: $49.63
Expected Value$6.89
13.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – MLG Columbus 2016
5 ItemsCost: $48.43
Expected Value$6.72
13.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Atlanta 2017
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$5.80
13.8%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Krakau 2017
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$5.80
13.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Train – Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $20.68
Expected Value$2.83
13.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Train – Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $20.76
Expected Value$2.83
13.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Berlin 2019
15 ItemsCost: $10.29
Expected Value$1.36
13.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – Boston 2018
13 ItemsCost: $52.95
Expected Value$6.89
13.0%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $9.03
Expected Value$1.14
12.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $7.06
Expected Value$0.87
12.4%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Vertigo – Rio 2022
18 ItemsCost: $9.27
Expected Value$1.08
11.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – ESL One Kattowitz 2015
5 ItemsCost: $57.71
Expected Value$6.72
11.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – MLG Columbus 2016
14 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$5.80
11.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – Köln 2016
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$6.89
11.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – Atlanta 2017
16 ItemsCost: $33.18
Expected Value$3.49
10.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – Antwerpen 2022
18 ItemsCost: $5.75
Expected Value$0.60
10.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Krakau 2017
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$8.62
10.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – ESL One Köln 2015
5 ItemsCost: $70.64
Expected Value$6.72
9.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – Berlin 2019
18 ItemsCost: $9.57
Expected Value$0.87
9.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – Kattowitz 2019
13 ItemsCost: $75.71
Expected Value$6.89
9.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – Krakau 2017
13 ItemsCost: $76.44
Expected Value$6.89
9.0%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Berlin 2019
18 ItemsCost: $13.13
Expected Value$1.14
8.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – ESL One Köln 2015
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$6.89
8.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Köln 2016
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$8.62
8.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Kattowitz 2019
14 ItemsCost: $72.35
Expected Value$5.80
8.0%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – MLG Columbus 2016
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$6.89
7.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – DreamHack Klausenburg 2015
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$6.89
7.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – ESL One Köln 2015
14 ItemsCost: $86.61
Expected Value$5.80
6.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – DreamHack Klausenburg 2015
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$5.80
6.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – DreamHack Klausenburg 2015
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.49
6.4%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – ESL One Kattowitz 2015
16 ItemsCost: $55.27
Expected Value$3.49
6.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Train – Köln 2016
15 ItemsCost: $44.88
Expected Value$2.83
6.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – ESL One Köln 2015
16 ItemsCost: $60.25
Expected Value$3.49
5.8%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Train – ESL One Köln 2015
15 ItemsCost: $49.42
Expected Value$2.83
5.7%F-Tier
→Paket: P250 | Röntgen
1 ItemsCost: $4.14
Expected Value$0.22
5.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – Köln 2016
14 ItemsCost: $137.11
Expected Value$5.80
4.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – London 2018
18 ItemsCost: $21.55
Expected Value$0.87
4.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – Boston 2018
9 ItemsCost: $231.63
Expected Value$8.62
3.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – Atlanta 2017
13 ItemsCost: $185.15
Expected Value$6.89
3.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – London 2018
18 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$1.14
3.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – Kattowitz 2019
18 ItemsCost: $24.01
Expected Value$0.87
3.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – London 2018
15 ItemsCost: $37.63
Expected Value$1.36
3.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $42.28
Expected Value$1.36
3.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Train – Berlin 2019
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$2.83
3.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – MLG Columbus 2016
15 ItemsCost: $794.06
Expected Value$23.57
3.0%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – Köln 2016
15 ItemsCost: $970.06
Expected Value$23.57
2.4%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Inferno – DreamHack Klausenburg 2015
5 ItemsCost: $291.30
Expected Value$6.72
2.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – ESL One Kattowitz 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1060.42
Expected Value$23.57
2.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – Boston 2018
15 ItemsCost: $1093.68
Expected Value$23.57
2.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – ESL One Köln 2014
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$8.62
2.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – Krakau 2017
15 ItemsCost: $1218.90
Expected Value$23.57
1.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – DreamHack Klausenburg 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1221.47
Expected Value$23.57
1.9%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – DreamHack 2014
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$5.80
1.7%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – ESL One Köln 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1530.45
Expected Value$23.57
1.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cobblestone – Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $1542.80
Expected Value$23.57
1.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Kattowitz 2019
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$1.36
1.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Train – DreamHack Klausenburg 2015
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$2.83
1.5%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Köln 2016
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.36
1.4%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – ESL One Köln 2014
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$3.49
1.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – MLG Columbus 2016
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – ESL One Köln 2015
15 ItemsCost: $124.35
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – Atlanta 2017
15 ItemsCost: $134.46
Expected Value$1.36
1.0%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Dust II – DreamHack 2014
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$3.49
0.6%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Nuke – DreamHack 2014
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$8.62
0.4%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Cache – DreamHack 2014
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$6.89
0.3%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – DreamHack 2014
15 ItemsCost: $743.87
Expected Value$1.36
0.2%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Mirage – ESL One Köln 2014
14 ItemsCost: $4616.92
Expected Value$5.80
0.1%F-Tier
→Souvenirpaket: Overpass – ESL One Kattowitz 2015
15 ItemsCost: $1183.07
Expected Value$1.36
0.1%F-Tier
→