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CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 45 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
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Huntsman Weapon Case
19 ItemsCost: $11.02
Expected Value$17.31
157.0%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $2.05
Expected Value$1.82
89.0%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.40
Expected Value$1.83
76.4%S-Tier
→Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$1.66
66.4%A-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.12
Expected Value$1.41
66.3%A-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $14.62
Expected Value$8.75
59.9%B-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $55.10
Expected Value$30.61
55.6%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $1.89
Expected Value$1.03
54.5%B-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $16.80
Expected Value$9.05
53.9%B-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.48
Expected Value$7.91
51.1%B-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $60.96
Expected Value$30.61
50.2%B-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$11.49
49.4%B-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $3.84
Expected Value$1.82
47.5%B-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $24.73
Expected Value$11.49
46.5%B-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $26.38
Expected Value$11.49
43.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.30
Expected Value$1.83
42.7%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.44
Expected Value$3.15
42.4%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.93
Expected Value$3.32
41.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.44
Expected Value$1.83
41.3%F-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.26
Expected Value$1.75
41.1%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.76
Expected Value$1.11
40.1%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.53
Expected Value$3.30
38.7%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$30.61
36.0%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.24
Expected Value$1.51
35.7%F-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.84
Expected Value$1.36
35.4%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $32.14
Expected Value$11.22
34.9%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
15 ItemsCost: $3.25
Expected Value$1.13
34.8%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $12.42
Expected Value$4.31
34.7%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.81
Expected Value$0.62
34.4%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.25
Expected Value$2.08
33.3%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.69
Expected Value$0.87
32.5%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.45
Expected Value$0.79
32.2%F-Tier
→
Snakebite Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.95
Expected Value$0.93
31.5%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.52
Expected Value$1.11
31.5%F-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.47
Expected Value$1.70
31.1%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.59
Expected Value$1.41
30.6%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $14.57
Expected Value$4.45
30.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$30.61
30.5%F-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.57
Expected Value$1.69
30.3%F-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.13
Expected Value$1.84
30.0%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.46
Expected Value$3.42
29.9%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $39.23
Expected Value$11.49
29.3%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.75
Expected Value$1.04
27.6%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$11.49
27.4%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $6.71
Expected Value$1.82
27.2%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$11.49
27.1%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.36
Expected Value$1.45
27.1%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.94
Expected Value$0.79
26.8%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.00
Expected Value$0.79
26.3%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.77
26.0%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.67
25.4%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $7.37
Expected Value$1.82
24.8%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
15 ItemsCost: $2.80
Expected Value$0.67
23.9%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.68
Expected Value$0.87
23.8%F-Tier
→Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $63.61
Expected Value$15.07
23.7%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.02
Expected Value$1.41
23.3%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.72
Expected Value$0.63
23.0%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.82
Expected Value$0.87
22.9%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.69
Expected Value$0.84
22.8%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.08
Expected Value$0.70
22.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $18.35
Expected Value$4.14
22.6%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.09
Expected Value$1.11
21.8%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.34
Expected Value$2.20
21.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $46.68
Expected Value$9.83
21.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.79
Expected Value$0.79
20.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.03
Expected Value$1.03
20.5%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.48
Expected Value$1.11
20.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $14.53
Expected Value$2.93
20.1%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $26.71
Expected Value$5.08
19.0%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $104.48
Expected Value$19.54
18.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $27.03
Expected Value$4.99
18.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $46.91
Expected Value$8.50
18.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $63.86
Expected Value$11.49
18.0%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $48.98
Expected Value$8.61
17.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $29.08
Expected Value$4.99
17.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $30.58
Expected Value$4.99
16.3%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $11.44
Expected Value$1.83
16.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $53.87
Expected Value$8.61
16.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $8.88
Expected Value$1.41
15.8%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $55.76
Expected Value$8.61
15.4%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $55.94
Expected Value$8.50
15.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $12.21
Expected Value$1.82
14.9%F-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.92
Expected Value$0.84
14.2%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$8.61
14.1%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $63.15
Expected Value$8.61
13.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.78
Expected Value$1.03
13.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$11.49
13.1%F-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $19.60
Expected Value$2.54
13.0%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $13.60
Expected Value$1.48
10.9%F-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $22.67
Expected Value$2.45
10.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$8.61
10.8%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.59
Expected Value$1.03
10.7%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $113.19
Expected Value$11.49
10.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $30.60
Expected Value$2.93
9.6%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$8.61
9.5%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $19.89
Expected Value$1.83
9.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$4.99
9.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$8.61
9.2%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $32.05
Expected Value$2.93
9.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $57.47
Expected Value$4.99
8.7%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $140.88
Expected Value$11.49
8.2%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $108.28
Expected Value$8.50
7.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$30.61
7.3%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $20.33
Expected Value$1.47
7.2%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $27.17
Expected Value$1.82
6.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $77.48
Expected Value$4.99
6.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $50.81
Expected Value$2.93
5.8%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $22.36
Expected Value$1.27
5.7%F-Tier
→X-Ray P250 Package
1 ItemsCost: $4.03
Expected Value$0.22
5.4%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $39.41
Expected Value$1.82
4.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $22.64
Expected Value$1.03
4.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $22.76
Expected Value$1.03
4.5%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $25.94
Expected Value$1.07
4.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $44.75
Expected Value$1.83
4.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $45.73
Expected Value$1.82
4.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $45.95
Expected Value$1.82
4.0%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $223.73
Expected Value$8.50
3.8%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $78.05
Expected Value$2.93
3.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $238.91
Expected Value$8.61
3.6%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $239.73
Expected Value$8.50
3.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$11.49
3.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $154.73
Expected Value$4.99
3.2%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $292.57
Expected Value$8.50
2.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $695.17
Expected Value$18.21
2.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $697.32
Expected Value$18.21
2.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $719.14
Expected Value$18.21
2.5%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $121.87
Expected Value$2.93
2.4%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $774.64
Expected Value$18.21
2.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $782.07
Expected Value$18.21
2.3%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $799.05
Expected Value$18.21
2.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $852.28
Expected Value$18.21
2.1%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.82
1.9%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$4.99
1.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $1778.06
Expected Value$30.61
1.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1069.76
Expected Value$18.21
1.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$2.93
1.5%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.82
1.5%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $815.96
Expected Value$11.49
1.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$30.61
1.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $159.65
Expected Value$1.82
1.1%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$4.99
0.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$8.61
0.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $924.78
Expected Value$1.82
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1188.20
Expected Value$1.82
0.2%F-Tier
→