BACK TO SIMULATOR
CS2 · Expected return calculator
CS2 CASE ROI CALCULATOR
Mathematical Expected Returns based on live Steam market pricing
Our algorithms utilize Valve's official unboxing drop rates: Mil-Spec (79.92%), Restricted (15.98%), Classified (3.20%), Covert (0.64%), and Rare Special (0.26%). Calculations factor in StatTrak variants and wear condition distributions with daily market synchronization.
MONTE CARLO BUDGET SIMULATOR
$
Allows opening approx. 200 boxes per run across 10,000 separate trials.
// EXPECTING_CALCULATION_STREAMClick the button above to run mathematical trials.
CASE EXPECTED RETURN RANKING
Sort By:
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal
39 ItemsCost: $2.50
Expected Value$1.95
78.0%S-Tier
→Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.98
Expected Value$1.36
68.9%A-Tier
→Huntsman Weapon Case
19 ItemsCost: $11.08
Expected Value$5.98
54.0%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.16
Expected Value$1.08
50.2%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.28
Expected Value$1.14
49.9%B-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 3
12 ItemsCost: $15.00
Expected Value$7.08
47.2%B-Tier
→Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $1.92
Expected Value$0.87
45.5%B-Tier
→Operation Wildfire Case
16 ItemsCost: $5.96
Expected Value$2.70
45.3%B-Tier
→Shadow Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.18
Expected Value$1.85
44.2%F-Tier
→Falchion Case
16 ItemsCost: $4.10
Expected Value$1.68
41.0%F-Tier
→Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.88
Expected Value$3.22
40.9%F-Tier
→eSports 2014 Summer Case
17 ItemsCost: $15.35
Expected Value$6.22
40.5%F-Tier
→Operation Broken Fang Case
17 ItemsCost: $8.71
Expected Value$3.48
39.9%F-Tier
→Operation Hydra Case
17 ItemsCost: $31.68
Expected Value$11.89
37.5%F-Tier
→Shattered Web Case
17 ItemsCost: $7.67
Expected Value$2.86
37.3%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1.80
Expected Value$0.66
36.9%F-Tier
→Chroma Case
14 ItemsCost: $7.25
Expected Value$2.67
36.8%F-Tier
→Gallery Case
15 ItemsCost: $3.30
Expected Value$1.21
36.7%F-Tier
→Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $6.25
Expected Value$2.26
36.2%F-Tier
→Prisma Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.89
Expected Value$1.39
35.7%F-Tier
→Winter Offensive Weapon Case
13 ItemsCost: $12.63
Expected Value$4.42
35.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $3.98
Expected Value$1.36
34.3%F-Tier
→Snakebite Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.95
Expected Value$1.00
33.9%F-Tier
→Horizon Case
17 ItemsCost: $4.12
Expected Value$1.39
33.8%F-Tier
→
Operation Bravo Case
15 ItemsCost: $61.72
Expected Value$20.34
32.9%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.36
Expected Value$0.76
32.2%F-Tier
→Glove Case
17 ItemsCost: $15.31
Expected Value$4.84
31.6%F-Tier
→Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $2.66
Expected Value$0.83
31.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $21.60
Expected Value$6.72
31.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $4.41
Expected Value$1.36
30.9%F-Tier
→Gamma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.52
Expected Value$1.70
30.7%F-Tier
→Revolver Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.17
Expected Value$1.58
30.6%F-Tier
→Chroma 2 Case
14 ItemsCost: $6.04
Expected Value$1.84
30.4%F-Tier
→Gamma Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.54
Expected Value$1.68
30.3%F-Tier
→Operation Riptide Case
17 ItemsCost: $11.70
Expected Value$3.48
29.7%F-Tier
→Danger Zone Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.75
Expected Value$1.11
29.5%F-Tier
→Prisma 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.86
Expected Value$1.08
28.0%F-Tier
→Kilowatt Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.65
Expected Value$0.74
27.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.78
Expected Value$0.76
27.3%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.22
Expected Value$1.14
26.9%F-Tier
→Spectrum 2 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.34
Expected Value$1.42
26.6%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $5.14
Expected Value$1.36
26.5%F-Tier
→Fracture Case
17 ItemsCost: $2.97
Expected Value$0.78
26.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.41
Expected Value$1.14
25.8%F-Tier
→Spectrum Case
17 ItemsCost: $6.04
Expected Value$1.53
25.3%F-Tier
→Dreams & Nightmares Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.72
Expected Value$0.94
25.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Winter Case
12 ItemsCost: $19.42
Expected Value$4.91
25.3%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.03
Expected Value$0.76
25.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $23.24
Expected Value$5.80
25.0%F-Tier
→Recoil Case
15 ItemsCost: $2.80
Expected Value$0.70
24.9%F-Tier
→Revolution Case
16 ItemsCost: $2.74
Expected Value$0.65
23.8%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.30
Expected Value$0.76
23.0%F-Tier
→Operation Breakout Weapon Case
14 ItemsCost: $10.05
Expected Value$2.30
22.9%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $15.46
Expected Value$3.49
22.5%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $2.70
Expected Value$0.60
22.3%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.92
Expected Value$1.08
22.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $26.51
Expected Value$5.80
21.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $3.92
Expected Value$0.83
21.2%F-Tier
→Clutch Case
17 ItemsCost: $3.10
Expected Value$0.64
20.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $32.74
Expected Value$6.72
20.5%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case 2
12 ItemsCost: $25.87
Expected Value$5.18
20.0%F-Tier
→London 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $14.24
Expected Value$2.83
19.9%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $44.03
Expected Value$8.62
19.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$5.80
18.8%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $4.77
Expected Value$0.87
18.3%F-Tier
→CS:GO Weapon Case
9 ItemsCost: $115.42
Expected Value$20.93
18.1%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $6.00
Expected Value$1.08
18.1%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $22.54
Expected Value$3.72
16.5%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.10
Expected Value$0.83
16.3%F-Tier
→eSports 2013 Case
9 ItemsCost: $51.18
Expected Value$8.25
16.1%F-Tier
→London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $21.68
Expected Value$3.49
16.1%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package
19 ItemsCost: $5.19
Expected Value$0.83
16.0%F-Tier
→Chroma 3 Case
17 ItemsCost: $5.64
Expected Value$0.90
15.9%F-Tier
→Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $3.87
Expected Value$0.60
15.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $22.95
Expected Value$3.49
15.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $49.63
Expected Value$6.89
13.9%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $48.43
Expected Value$6.72
13.9%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $41.92
Expected Value$5.80
13.8%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $42.37
Expected Value$5.80
13.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.68
Expected Value$2.83
13.7%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $20.76
Expected Value$2.83
13.6%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $10.29
Expected Value$1.36
13.3%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $52.95
Expected Value$6.89
13.0%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.03
Expected Value$1.14
12.6%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $7.06
Expected Value$0.87
12.4%F-Tier
→Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.27
Expected Value$1.08
11.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $57.71
Expected Value$6.72
11.6%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $51.28
Expected Value$5.80
11.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $60.98
Expected Value$6.89
11.3%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $33.18
Expected Value$3.49
10.5%F-Tier
→Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $5.75
Expected Value$0.60
10.5%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $84.96
Expected Value$8.62
10.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $70.64
Expected Value$6.72
9.5%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $9.57
Expected Value$0.87
9.1%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $75.71
Expected Value$6.89
9.1%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $76.44
Expected Value$6.89
9.0%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $13.13
Expected Value$1.14
8.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $80.05
Expected Value$6.89
8.6%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $100.44
Expected Value$8.62
8.6%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $72.35
Expected Value$5.80
8.0%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $90.50
Expected Value$6.89
7.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $93.94
Expected Value$6.89
7.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $86.61
Expected Value$5.80
6.7%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $87.84
Expected Value$5.80
6.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $54.45
Expected Value$3.49
6.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $55.27
Expected Value$3.49
6.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $44.88
Expected Value$2.83
6.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $60.25
Expected Value$3.49
5.8%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $49.42
Expected Value$2.83
5.7%F-Tier
→X-Ray P250 Package
1 ItemsCost: $4.14
Expected Value$0.22
5.3%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $137.11
Expected Value$5.80
4.2%F-Tier
→London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $21.55
Expected Value$0.87
4.1%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $231.63
Expected Value$8.62
3.7%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $185.15
Expected Value$6.89
3.7%F-Tier
→London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $30.85
Expected Value$1.14
3.7%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package
18 ItemsCost: $24.01
Expected Value$0.87
3.6%F-Tier
→London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $37.63
Expected Value$1.36
3.6%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $42.28
Expected Value$1.36
3.2%F-Tier
→Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$2.83
3.1%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $794.06
Expected Value$23.57
3.0%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $970.06
Expected Value$23.57
2.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package
5 ItemsCost: $291.30
Expected Value$6.72
2.3%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1060.42
Expected Value$23.57
2.2%F-Tier
→Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1093.68
Expected Value$23.57
2.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $416.52
Expected Value$8.62
2.1%F-Tier
→Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1218.90
Expected Value$23.57
1.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1221.47
Expected Value$23.57
1.9%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $349.80
Expected Value$5.80
1.7%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1530.45
Expected Value$23.57
1.5%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1542.80
Expected Value$23.57
1.5%F-Tier
→Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $90.70
Expected Value$1.36
1.5%F-Tier
→DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $190.39
Expected Value$2.83
1.5%F-Tier
→Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $96.29
Expected Value$1.36
1.4%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $288.52
Expected Value$3.49
1.2%F-Tier
→MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $119.38
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $124.35
Expected Value$1.36
1.1%F-Tier
→Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $134.46
Expected Value$1.36
1.0%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package
16 ItemsCost: $566.57
Expected Value$3.49
0.6%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package
9 ItemsCost: $2271.20
Expected Value$8.62
0.4%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package
13 ItemsCost: $2282.20
Expected Value$6.89
0.3%F-Tier
→DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $743.87
Expected Value$1.36
0.2%F-Tier
→ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package
14 ItemsCost: $4616.92
Expected Value$5.80
0.1%F-Tier
→ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package
15 ItemsCost: $1183.07
Expected Value$1.36
0.1%F-Tier
→